Trump’s rhetoric on Russia and Ukraine hardens — but is it a lasting change?

The Resurgam analytical community shared the analysis of Trump’s recent rhetoric regarding Ukraine.

1. Change in rhetoric

Resurgam says the first question is whether Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly was a one-off PR gesture or a lasting shift. Evidence points to a change of tone: Trump has repeatedly criticized Moscow in recent remarks, calling Medvedev irrelevant and repeating his “paper tiger” thesis. Interestingly, Vice President Vance — usually considered closer to business circles with Kremlin interests — stated that it was Russia that had refused to negotiate, either with Ukraine directly or through Trump’s mediation.

2. Long-range missiles

Resurgam notes that even discussing the potential provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine — whether Tomahawks or other systems — marks a significant shift. At the beginning of the year, Washington’s goal was merely to preserve existing supplies. Now, the fact that serious conversations are underway about weapons for deep strikes shows a new level of seriousness.

3. Intelligence sharing for deep strikes

According to Resurgam, the decision to authorize intelligence data sharing is closely linked to the effectiveness of long-range systems. American weapons, Trump insists, must be “incredible and the best,” which means routing and targeting are inseparable from U.S. intelligence support. Whether the authorization for intelligence sharing and the discussion of strike capabilities are part of one track or coincidental, Resurgam says, is something that will become clear later. For now, the timing is striking.

4. G7 finance ministers’ meeting

Resurgam recalls that during Trump’s presidency, the U.S. often blocked G7 efforts to assign responsibility to the Kremlin, resisted sanctions, and even abstained from enforcing its own proposals. But at the most recent finance ministers’ meeting, the U.S. not only joined the communiqué but also endorsed provisions explicitly blaming the Kremlin for its invasion and committing to new measures to support Ukraine.

Most importantly, Resurgam highlights a section of the communiqué that begins: “we have agreed to take JOINT measures to increase pressure on Russia and SUPPORT Ukraine.”

Among these:

• Full use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction, which strengthens Ursula von der Leyen’s push for a reparations loan. Resurgam emphasizes that the communiqué itself uses the word “escalation” in response to Russian air provocations.
• Stronger action against Russian oil exports, including tighter enforcement of sanctions. Resurgam says this raises the likelihood that Washington will join in lowering the oil price cap on October 15 or, at least, take tougher enforcement steps.
• Sanctions against third countries helping Moscow evade restrictions.

This communiqué, Resurgam notes, forms the foundation for decisions expected at the G7 summit in Washington on October 15.

Taken together, Resurgam says the past week and a half suggests a recalibration in Trump’s foreign policy approach.