First round of negotiations results: Europe's security is in its own hands

The U.S. strategy remains unchanged: in the absence of real leverage over Putin, the Americans will try to convince him to at least enter the negotiation process. In fact, the only instrument of influence that America is currently using is to create the impression of a positive trend in the normalization of relations with Putin and to count on this trend being of value in itself.

This is exactly what we have seen in recent weeks. Despite the continuation of arms supplies to Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions (even Orban was forced to support the extension of EU sanctions), Americans no longer call Putin a murderer, Russia an aggressor state, vote with Russia in the UN and tell TV how wise and wonderful Putin is. Obviously, after three years of complete isolation in global politics, this is what the bet was on. And we can say that this American bet has worked — Moscow demonstrates a desire to maintain this positive dynamic. For Ukraine, this creates additional risks, but the fact itself is worth recording.

Even Putin's essential refusal to accept Trump's proposal for a truce still allows Americans to view this process as generally successful. Putin did not say “no” and even demonstratively “shot down” several of his Shaheds over Ukraine. The Americans praised him for this publicly, and this fits the logic of creating a positive background.

Read also: Secret talks between Trump and Putin: what does it mean for Ukraine

The Kremlin's strategy has not changed either. From the very beginning of the war, the Russian position has been that the conflict can only end after the dismantling of Ukrainian independence (with various options for implementation) and the “elimination of the root causes of the conflict,” i.e., the withdrawal of NATO to its 1997 positions. And it is already clear how the Kremlin plans to use the negotiation process to achieve these goals.

It is obvious that Putin is engaged in negotiations not only out of a desire to get out of the status of a pariah in world politics. He certainly understands this tactic of the Americans and is trying to use it to his advantage. 

Putin's tactic is to “dumb down” the topic of Ukraine. To make it just another one of many topics in discussions with the United States. The Arctic, nuclear disarmament, the Middle East, and “we have rare earth metals too” are many potential topics. Their further development will gradually normalize relations with Putin, who, although he continues to kill dozens or hundreds of people every day, “implements fantastic economic projects.” 

Over the past three years, Ukraine has remained a central theme in U.S.-Russian relations. But if Moscow succeeds in shifting the focus, Washington's support for Ukraine may gradually fade. And this is exactly what the Russians need.

Obviously, these are only Putin's plans for now, and the realization of this scenario is not a fact. And not only because of fundamental differences between the United States and Russia. The firm position of Ukraine’s allies — Europe, Canada, Japan and others — also matters. 

Europe is united today as never before. The Europe that is fighting against Putin is actually the entire continent. The United Kingdom, which after Brexit positioned itself separately, is now fully coordinated with the EU. Even Marine Le Pen, known for her sympathy for the Kremlin, now openly supports Ukraine. Europe sees Ukraine as a key element of its security and acts accordingly. According to polls, even 44% of Canadians would like their country to join the EU, because they realize that Europe is becoming a real power that plans to guarantee its security on its own.

Europe is increasing its military support for Ukraine and does not pay attention to the U.S. negotiations with the Kremlin. And regardless of how the current round of negotiations ends, no one has any illusions today: Europe's security is in its own hands. And, more specifically, in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine is already and will remain a key element of the new European security system.

Source 

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of Ukraine’s Parliament

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.