Secret talks between Trump and Putin: what does it mean for Ukraine

After Donald Trump’s second phone conversation with Russian dictator Putin, it became clear that there would be no ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine — neither a 30-day ceasefire nor any other.

Contrary to Kremlin statements, Russian missiles and drones continue to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, even though immediately after the conversation, Putin allegedly gave an order to stop attacks on energy facilities. As usual, Moscow resorts to manipulation and lies.

Russia's Ministry of Defense even released a cynical statement claiming that after this order, six Russian drones in the air over Ukraine were shot down by their own Pantsir system, and another one was shot down by a Russian fighter jet.

In response to this latest lie from the Kremlin, President Zelenskyy quickly refuted Moscow’s claims, once again emphasizing that Russia has no plans to stop the attacks.

Therefore, the only real outcome of the talks was the exchange of prisoners of war. The return of Ukrainian soldiers is always good news, but it should be emphasized that such exchanges also took place without Donald Trump’s involvement. Instead, his main goal — the long-anticipated ceasefire — was not achieved. But for Ukrainians who had been watching, hoping that Trump and Putin wouldn't reach an agreement behind our backs, this news was a relief.

The conversation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy the following day fortunately went smoothly: they agreed to continue negotiating. During Ukrainian-American talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, our government agreed to a 30-day ceasefire — and importantly, without any preconditions.

Meanwhile, Putin presented a long list of unacceptable demands. The main one was the disarmament of Ukraine. This is what he seeks in the first stage of the so-called "temporary ceasefire."

Stopping mobilization, blocking the supply of Western weapons, and restricting intelligence data — this is the "demilitarization" the Kremlin dreams of. But Moscow’s appetite doesn’t end there. The next step would be to demand a sharp reduction in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the elimination of Ukraine's missile industry. This is not a compromise; this is the scenario of Ukraine's capitulation. And Ukraine does not intend to capitulate.

Now we are witnessing the reincarnation not of the Minsk agreements, but rather of the grain deal. But this time, it's not about grain. This is a new agreement — on rare earth metals with a touch of Iranian drone powder.

Russia's goal has not changed — it is the destruction of the Ukrainian state and the genocide of the Ukrainian nation.

Thus, the war will not stop until Putin feels that he is losing and is forced to enter real negotiations to save his power and life.

This is still far off, and it’s not just about the situation on the front. Despite the Ukrainian retreat in the Kursk region and some Russian advances in Donbas, Ukrainian soldiers are holding a firm defense. They are inflicting enormous losses on their enemy.

The Russian economy, which Putin has fully converted to military rails, is facing serious problems. The National Welfare Fund — or, in other words, the War Fund — has been depleted by three-quarters over three years, and new sanctions from the Biden administration, which have only recently taken effect, have already caused a 15% drop in oil revenues. Additionally, deeper systemic problems are accumulating in the Russian economy.

The sanction pressure on Russia is still insufficient, and sanctions are not acting as quickly as one would like. But they are working, gradually weakening the Kremlin's ability to finance the war. Similarly, the strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russian critical infrastructure are effective. And these strikes will continue.

Putin hoped that with Trump's return to power, he would manage to deprive Ukraine of Western assistance. Initially, this seemed to be the right calculation — the new American president really wanted to implement peace in a matter of days. Essentially, to give in to all of the Kremlin's demands. This is why we witnessed a tough conversation between Trump, his vice president Vance, and President Zelenskyy.

One might criticize President Zelenskyy for giving in to his interlocutors' provocations. But at the same time, we must understand that the White House staged a rehearsal of the "peace talks" that the negotiators from the U.S. and Russia had planned. They were discussing "peace" in Ukraine, attempting to impose it on the Ukrainian government during a meeting to which Ukraine was only supposed to join, not set the agenda.

In fact, this plan was nothing more than an ultimatum, built on Russian demands that we have long been familiar with. To confirm this, the U.S. suspended arms and intelligence supplies. The blackmail failed, as Ukrainians will not accept any ultimatums. Fortunately, this was understood in Washington, and as a result, Ukraine was offered real negotiations, where Ukraine once again became a party to policy, not just a party being imposed with foreign decisions through blackmail and ultimatums.

Another historical event took place — Europe woke up, despite Russia’s and the U.S.’s attempts to divide it between themselves. Leadership was taken by the UK and France. On their initiative, a "coalition of the willing" is being formed — an alliance of over 30 countries ready to support Ukraine today and provide security guarantees after a peace agreement is signed.

The war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's return to power forced Europe to reconsider its security and pursue the creation of an autonomous defense system and economic independence.

In response to these challenges, the European Commission relaxed budgetary constraints to give EU countries more opportunities to fund the defense sector. Ursula von der Leyen presented a plan for additional military spending of 800 billion euros, of which 650 billion will be funded by national budgets.

France — the only EU country with nuclear weapons, an independent intelligence system (DGSE), and the sole EU representative in the UN Security Council — has taken the lead. While the French nuclear umbrella cannot yet fully replace the American one, it could become the foundation of future European nuclear forces. This signal was clearly heard in Moscow.

“If Macron considers us a threat, calls a meeting of European and British chiefs of staff, says that we must use nuclear weapons, and prepares to use nuclear weapons against Russia, then this is certainly a threat,” stated Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister.

Meanwhile, in Europe, Macron's decision was welcomed, especially by the countries on NATO's eastern flank, who are unsure of future security guarantees due to Trump's unpredictable policies.

Moreover, the idea of expanding the nuclear umbrella was supported by the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. In general, Germany seeks to not lag behind the leaders of new security processes in Europe — France and the UK. The new German government has not yet gained legal powers, but it is already shaping a new reality.

At Friedrich Merz's initiative, the Bundestag voted to cancel the constitutional rule that limited the budgetary funding of the army and infrastructure projects. In the coming years, Germany plans to spend an astronomical amount — 1 trillion euros. This is a historic shift: Germany is starting rearmament.

Thanks to the insistence of the German "Greens," the relevant law stipulates that these funds can also be provided to countries that have become victims of aggression by a third country. This is not only about strengthening Germany's defense — it is also about supporting Ukraine.

"This is a war against Europe, not just against Ukraine's territorial integrity," said Friedrich Merz, the future Chancellor of Germany. Immediately after this statement, the current government of Olaf Scholz allocated three billion euros to Ukraine.

This once again underscores Ukraine’s key role in the European security system and the importance of Europe as a security guarantor for Ukraine.

It is still difficult to predict what the new European security system will look like — whether it will be part of a general agreement between EU countries or lead to the creation of a parallel defense alliance involving the UK and Norway, but excluding countries that slow down the processes, such as Hungary.

It is important to note that other European countries, including Turkey as a NATO member, are also making a significant contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s defense.

Ukraine’s fate is closely tied to Europe's future. Here, Ukraine finds its closest allies, and it is Europe that will define Ukraine's security guarantees as part of a broader European defense system. Ukraine’s role in this system will be crucial. The country has the largest army in Europe with real combat experience, and it is the one defending the eastern flank, where the greatest threats to European security are concentrated.

Any European defense system will be impossible without Ukraine. And it is Ukraine that will make Europe strong and capable of self-defense.

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About the author: Mykola Knyzhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs or columns.