Europe’s defense strategy for Ukraine, possible directions of Russia's new offensive. Serhiy Zgurets' column

European defense capacity building plan

On March 28, these issues were discussed in Kyiv at a roundtable on “Ukraine's Role and Place in the Formation of the European Security and Defense System”. The event was organized by the Defense Information Consortium, which brings together leading Ukrainian analytical institutions.

The White Paper on European Defense identifies priority areas for both European countries and for strengthening assistance to Ukraine. In particular, it includes the supply of large-caliber ammunition in the amount of up to 2 million rounds per year, which requires funding in 2025. The document provides for the provision of air defense systems, including long-range precision-guided systems.

It is declared that an air defense initiative should be launched in cooperation with Ukraine. It also talks about strengthening support for Ukraine's drone programs through procurement and joint production with European defense companies, as well as expanding training for the Ukrainian military. Currently, 75,000 Ukrainian military personnel have already been trained in Europe, and this process needs to be continued.

The main principle of this strategy is dispersed defense with autonomous flexible units. The document analyzes past experience, such as Finland's war against the Soviet Union or Ukraine's fighting during the Russian invasion in 2022.

Experts of the Defense Information Consortium emphasize that Ukraine's defense strategy should be based not only on past experience but also on modern achievements. The combination of traditional asymmetric defense with preemptive and long-range deterrence will allow the enemy to inflict unacceptable losses before invading Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to apply deterrence solutions through strikes on the enemy's deep rear positions. 

The second stage involves the destruction of the enemy's offensive capabilities through dispersed defense. The third stage involves the destruction of enemy forces at the tactical level with the help of high-precision weapons and mobile combat groups. All these aspects should be taken into account in negotiations with partners.

Franco-British mission

After the conclusion of the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Paris with the participation of 30 countries, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the deployment of a Franco-British mission to Ukraine to prepare a format for the Ukrainian army. This format requires active discussion involving expert structures, which was held today in Kyiv. The results of this discussion will be sent to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Frontline update

During a meeting with European partners, Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Ukrainian intelligence data indicate that Russia is preparing for new offensives in such areas as Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

These areas are currently showing high activity. According to combat statistics, over the past three days, there have been more than 200 clashes daily, although earlier this figure was about 150. The Russians are currently focusing their greatest efforts on the Pokrovsk direction.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 22-29, Photo: Espreso

In the Zaporizhzhia direction, combat actions cover the area from Piatykhatky to Mali Shcherbaky. Since mid-March, the Russian forces have been actively trying to advance to the Kamianske-Orikhiv road using armored vehicles. Fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Stepove and in the northern part of Mali Shcherbaky. The Russians are using not only small marching groups, but also airborne combat vehicles. 

Zaporizhzhia direction

Artem Tovstenko, external pilot of a separate unit of unmanned systems Typhoon of the National Guard of Ukraine, spoke about the situation in the area of responsibility of the unit. 

“The situation in the sector is dynamic at the moment. The enemy is actively using a variety of tactics, including the use of armored vehicles, aircraft and drones. The intensity of attacks varies depending on the operational situation. Our units are actively countering the Russians using drones for reconnaissance and strikes,” he said.

A separate detachment of Typhoon unmanned systems is quite autonomous and has various types of unmanned systems at its disposal. Tovstenko noted that the operators work continuously, performing tasks to destroy enemy equipment and manpower. Their workload is quite high, as drones play a key role in modern warfare. 

“A large number of sorties are carried out every day, both reconnaissance and targeted. In addition, drones are even used to deliver provisions,” he added.

The Russians have begun using both fiber-optic drones and aircraft-type FPV drones, which are proving effective in active electronic warfare. Automatic guidance systems and special ammunition are also being developed. The main challenge for the Armed Forces is adapting to new technologies and finding solutions to maintain our technological advantage, the military said.

Recruiting

“We are constantly expanding, so we need new personnel, including drone operators, aircraft technicians, drivers, and media specialists. Currently, the process of training new operators is ongoing and is carried out in parallel with the increase in the supply of drones. That's why we need people,” Tovstenko said.

Regarding the supply of drones, he said that the main supply is carried out with the support of volunteer organizations and the state, the National Guard of Ukraine. “This assistance is a key factor in the effectiveness of our work, and all parties are actively contributing to this direction.

“There are never too many drones, as their role in modern warfare is constantly growing. The more drones, the easier it is for the infantry. In fact, drones have replaced many traditional means of warfare,” he said.

Ukrainian pilots' experience on F-16

Recently, an extremely interesting interview was published by the Ukrainian Air Force Command. In it, an F-16 fighter pilot talked about the dynamics of changes in the use of these aircraft in the Ukrainian Air Force.

At the current stage, there are already significant changes in approaches to maximizing the use of F-16 capabilities. Initially, the main task of these aircraft was to fight air targets such as Shaheds or cruise missiles. This was the first stage of developing their capabilities.

At the next stage, F-16s are now covering Ukrainian Su-27 and Su-24s, which are striking at Russian territory. There is also footage of F-16s using guided munitions to strike ground targets.

As the F-16 pilot noted, measures are already being taken to influence Russian aircraft that use guided bombs to strike Ukrainian civilian and military targets. By interacting with Ukrainian detection equipment, the F-16s create significant pressure on Russian pilots who are aware of the risks of being shot down.

Thus, F-16s significantly enhance the potential of the Ukrainian Air Force. We are currently developing new tactics for their use in conjunction with enemy target detection equipment. The President of Ukraine recently announced the receipt of a new batch of these fighters.

In general, strengthening Ukraine's air capabilities is an important step in addressing the challenges of countering cruise missiles and kamikaze drones, as well as defeating enemy ground targets. We hope that the F-16 will become another key element in strengthening our Security and Defense Forces.