Europeans are Ukraine’s key allies, top EU leaders publicly declare

1. The pause in negotiations is linked to the expectation that Russia will present a draft memorandum with conditions that, as Donald Trump says, “people can agree to.” 

It is unlikely that Russia will include anything fundamentally new. We know well what they asked for in Istanbul in 2022. If their demands are less this time, it would mean they admit to having suffered defeats over these three years. However, based on the details published by Bloomberg, it is clear that Putin, on the contrary, is confident of victory. Therefore, we should not expect concessions. They are theoretically possible, but unlikely.

2. Over the past three months, the Trump administration has somewhat changed its approach. First of all, the U.S. has gained a better understanding of the nuances of the war and how Russia, Ukraine, and Europe are interconnected. Previously, Trump was convinced that the war started because of NATO expansion. Hence his statements about “24 hours”—that is, it would be enough to promise Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO, and everything would end. 

Now, Washington understands the situation more deeply. In the three months since the inauguration, they have learned a lot—enough not to promise anything further. No one in the administration is talking about deadlines anymore. The main desire is to exit the process without harm to themselves.

However, the U.S. cannot simply walk away. And the reason is not only foreign policy. The latest polling (Harvard CAPS) shows that 61% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, support continued aid to Ukraine, providing weapons, and imposing sanctions against Russia. In the Senate, 81 votes have already been gathered for a bill imposing a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil. So, support for Ukraine is the position of both voters and both parties.

To this, we can add the EU’s reaction to the suspension of arms supplies, as well as to U.S. concessions.

Therefore, even though Trump would like to stop dealing with this war, it will not be easy for him to completely withdraw. Most likely, he will simply lower the priority of the “Ukrainian issue”—as he did during his first term in the White House.

3. In negotiations, the Trump administration is guided by the logic that if the war has no military solution, it should be ended through negotiations. But since it is not possible to force Putin to negotiate by force, they are simply trying to persuade him. And it is impossible to persuade and threaten at the same time. Therefore, all the strong words that Biden used to say have disappeared. At the UN, Americans no longer vote to condemn Russia. Even Senator Rubio, who previously repeatedly called Putin a criminal, did not answer five direct questions about this topic this week.

Instead of pressure, the U.S. has offered Putin more “carrots” than he would get even after capturing Kyiv. But this did not work. Trump has already admitted: Putin does not want peace, he wants the war to continue. This increases the U.S. administration’s desire to wind down its involvement and shift everything to Europe.

For now, the U.S. continues to supply weapons approved by Biden (the total volume is even greater than in 2024), provides intelligence, and has not canceled any sanctions packages—on the contrary, Trump has extended them. But a complete, painless withdrawal is not yet possible.

4. Europe has also changed. When people say “Europe is waking up,” it means that it has finally realized that defense is its own responsibility. Russia has been, is, and will remain a threat. Relying on others is risky. Recent events in the Baltic Sea (Estonia’s attempt to detain a Russian tanker and the response of the Russian Air Force) only confirm this.

So, Europe is arming itself and helping Ukraine. Even fruitless negotiations are a way for it to buy time to increase arms supplies to Ukraine, establish independent (without the U.S.) ties with other NATO partners, and reformat its own defense sectors.

Right now, Europeans are Ukraine's key allies. And all leading EU leaders openly state this.

5. The chance that the Russian memorandum will lead to a ceasefire, truce, or peace is minimal. Everything we know so far lowers expectations to almost zero. The further development of the negotiation process will be more important. Success should not be expected either, but given the unpredictability of American policy, even the end of the war could come quite unexpectedly.

In any case, Ukraine's defense capability is our responsibility. If you have read this text—whether you agree with it or not—find any fund or fundraiser to support the military or volunteers that you trust, and send at least 10 hryvnias. The war continues, and the Ukrainian military, as before, needs help. One of the first tasks for each of us is to maintain unity in the country and support those who protect us.

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About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of Parliament of Ukraine.

The editorial office doesn’t always share the views expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.