“Porcupine strategy” is not enough for Ukraine: expert on European troop deployment in Ukraine

He said this on the Espreso TV channel.

“As for any contingents of foreign troops after a truce with Russia, this is a somewhat distant prospect that can hardly be perceived realistically. For now, we are in a situation where the enemy continues to attack in all directions, and in these conditions, hardly any European country will decide to send its contingents to Ukraine,” Zgurets said.

According to the CEO of Defense Express, a media and consulting company, after a possible ceasefire, Russia is not in favor of the presence of European troops in Ukraine. Ukraine, for its part, is not going to give up its positions.

“Currently, most decisions are made on the battlefield. But indeed, we expect a group from the UK and France to arrive in Kyiv in the near future to determine approaches to the future shape of the Ukrainian army,” Zgurets said.

The expert explained that all the efforts of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany should be viewed in the context of the EU's defense white paper, which was presented last week. It defines the approaches that the EU should take to strengthen Ukraine's defense and military capabilities.

“There are a number of steps: supplying ammunition, strengthening the air defense system, expanding Ukraine's logistical participation in certain transport corridors for the supply of weapons, and involving Ukraine in EU intelligence. But there is an interesting point in that report that Ukraine should organize a “Porcupine Strategy” to protect its territory,” Zgurets said.

The director of the Defense Express also added that the “Porcupine Strategy” will be discussed at the meetings because the approaches introduced in this strategy in the EU White Paper are insufficient for Ukraine's real defense capabilities. Because the “Porcupine Strategy" is focused on having flexible mobile forces that can deter the enemy's advance through speed and maneuverability. But this strategy is insufficient for our conditions, because we are already going further by creating corps. We are creating a deterrence system based on long-range strikes.

“The visits of European partners to Kyiv will be aimed at shaping the real appearance of the Ukrainian army, which will combine the Porcupine Strategy with the solutions we have achieved today through the development of long-range drones and the creation of our own strike weapons.

And this will be a reason for discussions between European and Ukrainian partners and the creation of clear steps for cooperation with our European partners, without waiting for delayed decisions that European troops will come to us only after a truce is reached.

I think that this year and next year will see a rather difficult phase at the front, where both Russia and Ukraine will rely primarily on the potential on the front line,” Zgurets summarized.

Peacekeeping troops in Ukraine: what is known

At the end of January, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that at least 200,000 peacekeepers would be needed to secure Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities. Later, the president clarified that the US military should be among the peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.

On February 11, the NYT reported that Europe does not have 200,000 peacekeepers to send to Ukraine. This is almost three times the size of the entire British army. On the same day, Zelenskyy said that the mission would work if 100-150,000 European troops were deployed. 

According to the AP, a group of European countries is confidentially developing a plan to send troops to Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump supported the deployment of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, but noted that the United States would not participate. 

According to French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Christophe Lemoine, European countries are currently discussing only the possibility of sending their troops to Ukraine, not their number.

At the same time, the German concern Rheinmetall announced its readiness to arm peacekeepers in Ukraine.

On March 16, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that the Kremlin would take the deployment of Western peacekeepers to Ukraine as a declaration of war with NATO.

On March 21, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that his country could send peacekeepers to Ukraine only under the UN flag.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained why UN peacekeepers cannot replace the military contingent.