Europe seeks compromise with U.S. ahead of London summit

1. It should be noted that supporting Ukraine is also a key part of Europe's own defense in its trade war with the United States. When we say Ukraine is being protected, we must understand that protecting Ukraine is integral to protecting Europe itself. I have repeatedly pointed out that this is both an advantage for Ukraine (as it has already effectively become part of Europe’s security perimeter) and a disadvantage, due to its relative subjectivity.

2. Europe does not want and is not going to quarrel with the United States. Europe wants to find a compromise regarding itself and the "Ukraine issue." The key word is "compromise." This means that the 1991 borders are not of real interest to anyone.

Reliable security guarantees are not so much about documents — because, I fear, they may not take the form Ukraine envisions. Rather, they are about the existential question of whether or not to support a partner at a crucial moment in history.

3. I have said this before and will say it again: Trump’s future actions will primarily depend on three things — public opinion in the United States, the cohesion (or lack thereof) of the Republican Party, and the position of key sponsors. At the moment, there are no clear answers, but we will understand how these three factors operate within roughly 5–15 days (the minimum time needed for public opinion to crystallize).

4. Regarding the EU’s next steps, we can assume with a high degree of probability that shuttle diplomacy will now begin (led mainly by Macron and Starmer) with the goal of finding a compromise.

What could such a compromise look like (an ideal model)?

• maintaining the current status quo for a certain period;
• Ukraine signing an updated agreement on rare earth metals or a similar deal;
• the EU participating in the creation of a "grand agreement" with Russia;
• establishing a new, at least conceptual, EU-U.S. agreement.

How realistic this scenario is will largely depend on point 3. However, as I understand the basic scenario of the Europeans, the key factor remains reconciliation with Trump. And this is something that will be extremely painful for Ukrainian society to accept.

5. Within Ukraine, it is certain that elections will be postponed indefinitely. However, this does not mean that the political elite will abandon pre-election logic (i.e., a focus on ratings). In fact, I believe that pre-election logic will dominate most decision-making processes. This, in turn, will lead to continued internal turbulence.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political analyst.

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