Estonia’s intelligence warns: Middle East tensions could curb Russia’s drone strikes on Ukraine

Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Center, suggested that escalating tensions in the region — particularly between Israel and Iran — may disrupt the supply and production of drones used by Russia. His remarks were cited by ERR and reported by European Pravda.

Kiviselg explained that Russia tends to launch drone attacks in cycles. While the average daily use hovers around 150 drones, Moscow typically conducts attacks in waves: smaller strikes lasting four to five days with 60–70 drones, followed by large-scale barrages involving 350–450 drones launched simultaneously.

He noted that this pattern also applies to Russia’s missile use — including both cruise and ballistic types. In recent months, Moscow has increasingly shifted from targeting single military objectives to more scattered strikes on a wide range of targets, often hitting civilian infrastructure and residential areas.

“The new reality is that strikes on civilian infrastructure have become systematic rather than isolated incidents,” Kiviselg said. “The overnight assault on Kyiv on June 17 and the strike on Odesa a few days later are clear examples.”

Kiviselg suggested that a potential drop in drone attacks could be linked to international developments. “We know that Israel may have targeted a drone manufacturing facility in Isfahan, Iran. At the same time, Ukrainians have repeatedly struck the drone plant in Yelabuga, Tatarstan — a key site for Russia’s UAV production,” he said.

As a result, he added, “we may soon witness a decline in the intensity of Russian drone use.” However, Kiviselg cautioned that Russia is likely already working on ways to ramp up production and sustain its drone campaign in the long term.

In parallel with aerial strikes, Kiviselg also commented on the ground war, describing Russia’s summer offensive as largely stalled. Despite launching a renewed push two months ago, Russian troops have been unable to make major advances in eastern Ukraine.

“Russia’s offensive has bogged down due to Ukraine’s determined defense,” he said. “The operation has degenerated into local tactical clashes, with Moscow trying to advance despite high losses.”

According to Estonian intelligence, Russia continues to carry out between 150 and 160 attacks daily, with the bulk of combat focused on the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk Oblast, where roughly half of all clashes occur.

As for the situation in Sumy Oblast, Kiviselg said that Russian attempts to make gains there have failed to yield lasting results. “Despite initial advances, the offensive has effectively been halted,” he said, adding that Ukraine quickly corrected early vulnerabilities in the region’s defenses.

While Russia’s broader strategic objectives remain unchanged, Kiviselg concluded, “it has not been able to achieve a breakthrough on any sector of the front, and Ukraine continues to hold the line.”

• On the evening of June 19, the Russian army launched attack drones against Ukraine. One person was killed in Odesa, 14 were injured, and there are casualties in Kharkiv. A fire broke out in the Sumy region as a result of the strike.