Drone warfare: is Ukraine losing its edge over Russia?

Contents

1. Why drone warfare matters for Ukraine
2. How many drones Ukraine vs. Russia are making
3. Expert opinion: Why we’re starting to lose the drone war
4. What Ukraine can do next

Espreso breaks down how drones have become perhaps the most critical tool in today’s war, where Ukraine is struggling to scale production, and what can still be done.

Why drone warfare matters for Ukraine

Drones have reshaped modern war. What started as a tool for surveillance is now the main strike weapon. The Russian-Ukrainian war is often called the “first drone war,” and according to French Army Chief of Staff General Pierre Schill, drones now account for about 80% of destruction in this war.

They allow for precise strikes at a low cost, taking out expensive targets like tanks or air defense systems. For example, an FPV drone worth a few hundred dollars can destroy a tank worth millions. Even more importantly, in a war of attrition, drones give Ukraine an edge against enemy infantry. Russian troops vastly outnumber Ukrainian forces, but thanks to drones, Ukraine can slow them down and systematically take them out — saving soldiers’ lives on the front lines.

The numbers tell the story. In 2023, drones were responsible for up to 20% of Russian personnel losses. By 2024, that number had jumped to 65%. The share is even higher when it comes to equipment — drones now account for 65% to 75% of Russian hardware losses. Half of those are caused by FPV drones, which have become the most effective type used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.

It’s also worth noting that for Ukraine, which frequently faces shortages of artillery shells, drones help fill the gap. They offer accuracy, save resources, and allow Ukrainian forces to strike Russian positions from a distance.

Having the upper hand in drone warfare doesn’t just offer a battlefield advantage, it also hits Russia economically. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and military factories cut into export revenue and damage production capacity. And that impact shows up directly at the front.

How many drones Ukraine vs. Russia are making

In 2022–2023, Ukraine had a strategic edge thanks to creative drone use and an innovative approach. Ukrainian UAVs set flight range records, flying hundreds of kilometers behind Russian lines and striking key targets like oil refineries and military depots. Ukrainian naval drones also pushed the Russian fleet out of the western Black Sea. On top of that, hundreds of thousands of FPV drones helped slow down the Russian advance.

What started as small-scale production quickly grew. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, drone production increased 100 times between 2022 and 2024. In 2022, only a few thousand units were made per year (the rest were bought or received from allies), while by 2023, the number reached around 300,000. In 2024, production passed the one million mark. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine produced 2.2 million FPV drones and 100,000 long-range UAVs last year. More importantly, Ukraine developed a wide range of drones: naval drones, missile drones, kamikaze drones, FPV drones, long-range drones, and recon drones, with each category including dozens of models in active use. In the beginning, drone makers could be counted on one hand, now there are over 200 companies involved.

But Russia didn’t sit still. The Russians also saw the potential of drones and started building their own industry. First, they bought Iranian "Shahed" drones. Then they set up licensed production and ramped up output of FPV drones.

In January 2024, Russian troops were using about 4,500 FPV drones per month. By October, that number had jumped to 13,000, with roughly 100,000 used throughout 2024 in the combat zone. Russia also started importing massive amounts of components from China — up to 80% — and even used Chinese factories to develop and build new attack drones, according to Reuters. This helped cut costs and speed up production. At one point in the summer, Russia claimed it was producing 4,000 FPV drones per day, but experts disputed that. Military-political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said the real daily use by Russian forces was just a few hundred units, not thousands.

By the end of last year, Russia’s FPV drone production involved 54 manufacturers across 22 regions, including both major defense plants and small private firms.

As Defense Express military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi said last year on Espreso TV, the Russians aren’t focused on making their drones more advanced — they’re focused on producing more of them.

"The Russians are now betting on scale when it comes to drone production. And large-scale production means keeping the technology simple. There’s no need to assign any incredible capabilities to Russian drones, they’re not meant to have them. You simply can’t make a drone that costs a few hundred dollars high-tech. The problem is that there are just too many of these Shahed and Gerbera drones," he said.

This trend has become especially clear in recent months, with Ukrainian air defenses overwhelmed almost nightly by waves of Russian Shaheds, which are then followed by missile and ballistic strikes. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces have stepped up their own strikes on Russian targets. As President Zelenskyy puts it: "We must respond in a mirror manner to all threats and challenges from Russia."

Recently, an article in The Economist caused a stir by reporting that the Kremlin produced around 300 Shahed drones per month last year. Now, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia is aiming to ramp that up to 500 drones per day. That means massive night drone attacks of 1,000 units could become a reality, the article noted.

At the same time, Ukrainian aviation expert Kostyantyn Kryvolap cautions that these numbers may be inflated, as Russia’s arms industry often relies on hype and false reporting.

Still, it’s clear that drone production will rise significantly. Even if Ukraine manages to hold the eastern front, defending the skies will only get harder, The Economist wrote.

Meanwhile, military expert and co-chair of the Prava Sprava organization, Dmytro Sniehyriov, said on Espreso TV that the idea of 1,000 drones per night "raises doubts and is unrealistic." He believes it’s more about spinning a narrative than reflecting actual facts.

That said, back in 2023, the Russian government did approve the "Strategy for the Development of Unmanned Aviation until 2030 and for the Future to 2035." The document claims that in 10 years, Russia will be producing 1 million drones annually. Hundreds of thousands of them could be strike drones like the Shahed.

Expert opinion: Why we’re starting to lose the drone war

Be that as it may, various industry experts are increasingly asking how the Russians managed to catch up with Ukraine — and in some areas, surpass us — and how we can maintain our lead in this drone war.

For example, Maria Berlinska, head of the Air Intelligence Support Center, wrote in her column that "the Russians are overtaking us in technology." She says we’re slowly reaching a point where the Russian Federation could launch over 1,000 strike UAVs per day.

"By the end of May 2025, we’re falling further behind in the tech race. In some areas, there’s still parity, but overall, the Russians are pulling ahead. They’ve built a state-level policy, brought in tens of thousands of top engineers into the military-industrial system, teamed up with hundreds of engineering teams from China, North Korea, Belarus, and others, and invested hundreds of billions of dollars into R&D and components. We’re trying to catch up with low-tech solutions, but cheap, simple tech is only part of the answer. We need a leap to a fundamentally new level," Berlinska said.

Military serviceman, co-founder of the Center for Aerial Intelligence Support, and former MP Ihor Lutsenko also pointed out that Moscow’s capabilities across the UAV industry are growing rapidly, while "we don’t see that kind of growth."

"And this is just the beginning. As you know, the Russians are planning to fight us for decades. Their decision to go after our energy and transport infrastructure, large and even medium-sized factories, is now in full swing. The prediction of 1,000 Shahed drones per day isn’t just about the front line, it’s about the rear. The economy behind the lines is increasingly under attack, and it’s getting harder to hold the front," said Lutsenko.

Meanwhile, Rudolf Akopyan, director of strategic communications at one of Ukraine’s top drone manufacturers — the makers of the "General Chereshnya" quadcopters — said on Ukrainian Pravda air that Ukraine is still "slightly ahead" technologically.

"Russia took the lead in quickly scaling up certain drone technologies, acting systematically and effectively. For example, fiber-optic drones — Ukraine tested them a year and a half ago, but they didn’t catch on right away. Russia, meanwhile, developed the tech on a massive scale, bought up most of China’s production capacity, and started using them widely at the front. Same with the Shaheds: Russia picked one technology and ramped up production fast, without spreading out resources," Akopyan noted.

Experts agree that time is a critical factor. To avoid losing its advantage, Ukraine needs to drastically change its approach to drones. First and foremost, a national strategy for developing military technology (MilTech) is needed, one that brings together the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, business, and scientists.

"The answer is very simple and obvious. A technological war will be won through mass production and large development teams. And mass production and big development efforts are the domain of big business. In Russia, the state and business groups close to the government have joined forces to build large production sites and teams of engineers. Big business — only it — can handle the scale needed to win the arms race," says Lutsenko.

Maria Berlinska agrees, noting, "We’ve already pulled off a miracle by holding out for more than three years using gear from the hobby radio market."

"But these solutions are increasingly being outmatched by serious, large-scale projects from joint Russian-Iranian-Chinese engineering teams. And if we keep relying on 'solutions made of sticks and glue' just to drag the war on for a few more years, it will end very badly. First, those solutions will stop working. Then the Russians will roll out a few more game-changers, and after that, the army will be demoralized, and that’ll be the end of it," Berlinska warns.

She stresses that the only real way forward is to build a proper state strategy for military tech development. "This needs to be the top priority," she adds.

"Right now, the entire front line is being supported by just a few thousand engineers and manufacturers. An entire country of millions — and only a few thousand people supporting the tech effort. We need to help them as much as possible and start training new specialists," Berlinska explains.

Rudolf Akopyan from the Unmanned Systems Research Center LLC points out that businesses are still struggling with the unpredictability of contracts, which creates serious issues.

"Drone producers in Ukraine face constant uncertainty. Contracts show up randomly — sometimes there’s no funding, and then suddenly someone demands 100–200 thousand drones in 15 days. The full production cycle, including shipping parts from China, can take up to three months, so quick turnaround is just not realistic. To avoid downtime, companies have to buy parts with their own money. What we need are long-term contracts with fixed timelines, so we can plan ahead and keep production running smoothly," Akopyan says.

What Ukraine can do next 

To sum up expert opinions: if Ukraine wants to maintain and boost its edge in the drone war, it needs to make some systemic changes.

Long-term contracts and state support: The government should offer stable funding and long-term contracts to drone manufacturers. This would help with production planning, tech investment, and scaling up capacity.

Standardizing production: It might be time to cut down the number of drone models and focus on a few proven designs, just like the Russians do, to maximize output.

Collaboration between business, education, and government: Ukraine needs a MilTech strategy that brings together government support, research centers, and the private sector. The goal is to train more specialists and ramp up local production of drone components instead of relying on Chinese imports.

Defense against electronic warfare and enemy drones: Ukraine must prioritize drones that can resist electronic warfare, like fiber-optic UAVs. These are already being produced, but rollout needs to speed up. AI is another promising area: semi-autonomous drones powered by AI could neutralize Russia’s edge in electronic warfare. On top of that, developing drones that can take out enemy drones would strengthen air defense.

International cooperation: Tighter coordination with Western allies can improve Ukraine’s own tech, and their funding can help scale up production, following models like Denmark’s. The Netherlands, for example, recently committed €500 million to build strike drones for Ukraine.

Exports and economic benefits: Allowing limited, controlled drone exports (while managing the risk of enemy copying) could bring in much-needed funding for the sector. Drone exports were banned after the war began, but arms producers have repeatedly called for that decision to be reconsidered in order to receive additional funds.