"Crimea is ours" 2.0: Why everyone suddenly started talking about recognizing Crimea as Russian

1. All the current peace talk ideas from the U.S. basically come down to the “Kellogg Plan” (freeze the front line as the border, Ukraine doesn’t join NATO), and in return, some of the sanctions on Russia are rolled back. The main sticking point is the status of the occupied territories. That’s where Witkoff’s comments about the possible recognition of Crimea come in.

2. The Paris meeting had to happen — because without the Europeans, lifting sanctions just isn’t on the table. Plus, the U.S. can’t even theoretically recognize annexed territories on its own without Europe.

3. What we’re seeing now mostly boils down to finding some kind of formula for quasi-recognition (for example, Ukraine agreeing not to take the territories back by force). Whether that’s enough for Putin is doubtful. But he’ll clearly try to drag things out.

4. It’s also important to watch the EU-U.S. negotiations — or more accurately, the EU-U.S.-Ukraine triangle. Right now, it would be weird for the EU to give anything away without tying it to their own concerns (tariffs, NATO’s security umbrella, and how the war ends). So the idea that the EU might just cave is far-fetched.

5. In this context, it’s worth watching Russia’s moves. They’re suddenly acting like they’re open to letting foreign companies back in, and Putin even told the government to draw up rules for their return. The message here seems to be: even if talks fail, Russia wants to show it’s open for Western (especially American) business. It’s a signal that they’re leaving the door open for economic cooperation with the U.S. — even during the summer counteroffensive.

To repeat: there’s a chance this negotiation round could end with some kind of deal — but it’s a long shot. We won’t have to wait long to find out.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.