Country losing war has no way to pay its bills

As soon as "peace" is established, Ukraine will immediately lose international aid. Let me remind you that right now, the entire Ukrainian budget, excluding defense, is funded by our partners. Pensions, subsidies, medical services, teachers, infrastructure, national cashback, and other "toys" in the Diia app, salaries for Serhiy Leshchenko and all other officials, police officers, and prosecutors — none of this comes from our own money, but from international assistance.

It's easy to guess that once "peace" arrives, we will have to pay for all of this ourselves. It's equally easy to guess that a country that has lost the war and is living its last years before another war, has no chance of paying these bills.

It's also easy to guess where the money for building roads and paying salaries to people like Leshchenko will come from — from the army.

We are a poor country, and objectively, regardless of who the president is, we don't have the resources to maintain a million-strong army. That means it will be reduced again to 200,000, and when the Russians attack again — not from the narrow Chongar, but from the wide Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions — there will be no one to stop them. 

So, "peace" for Ukraine means that international support will be reduced to crumbs, the army will shrink, and a hungry, war-weary society will be torn apart by political strife for election percentages.

And what does "peace" mean for Russia? "Peace" for Russia will mean not a decrease, as in our case, but an increase in the military budget. Sanctions will be lifted from Russia, and it will be able to earn trillions again, like before the invasion. Equipment for oil extraction and weapons production will be supplied to Russia once more.

Therefore, Russia’s army will not shrink, as Ukraine’s will, but grow. Because there will be more oil dollars, more unemployed people due to structural issues in the economy, defense factories will ramp up production and churn out drones and tanks around the clock. Russia's budget will return to surplus. The war reserve fund will be replenished, and when Russia attacks again, it will have the money to last until America elects the next Trump.

When Russia breaks the "peace" and attacks again, its army will be stronger, and ours weaker.

This is what will happen when "peace" arrives.

I write "peace" in quotation marks because, in reality, the Trump/Putin deal is not peace at all. It is not peace, but a scheme for Russia to exit a war that is destroying it, while keeping what it has seized and creating a launching pad for a new attack.

This is such a stupid scam for fools that even Ukrainians who are now advocating for peace at any cost understand it. But our little ones, tired of the war, try not to think about the fact that in a few years of "peace," Putin will return to kill them all, bring Buryats to their cherry gardens, and finally solve the "Ukrainian question."

Right now, I am deeply concerned about the future, because in order to survive as a nation, we need to look far ahead and calculate the consequences of actions and signed agreements. But society wants simple solutions, and the government, which is already prone to reflexive emotional actions, finds it harder to focus on the future when elections are looming here and now.

*Published with the author's style preserved

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About the author. Serhiy Marchenko, labor market expert and blogger.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.