Counting artillery shells: Ukraine's defensive arsenal needs

Oleksandr Kovalenko analyzes Ukraine’s needs in an article for Obozrevatel.

At a recent Munich conference, Czech President Petr Pavel hinted at a potential transfer of 500,000 155 mm and 300,000 122 mm shells to Ukraine. The catch? Figuring out the financing.

Considering the daily firing rate of Russian occupying forces, which dropped from 80,000 shots to 10,000, these 800,000 shells will last for 160 days with a stable rate of fire. But there are also other types of calibers besides 155 mm and 122 mm.

In offensive scenarios, the demand will spike. A three-month offensive could require at least 1.5 million shells, reaching 5 million in a year. The challenge lies not just in the number but in proportional artillery supply.

Supplying 500,000 rounds of 155 mm means around 30 artillery systems daily for 160 days. Yet, Western models often limit firing to preserve barrel life.

Russia can quickly deploy 300-350 towed howitzers, creating an artillery imbalance despite lower quality.

In conclusion, for effective defense and occasional offense, Ukraine needs at least 5 million shells yearly, with a proportional artillery supply. Adaptations may be necessary based on factors like changes in the Russian forces' daily shots.