China’s worst-case scenario: Ukrainian politician says nuclear deterrence still working

Ukrainian politician Oleh Rybachuk, head of the NGO Center for Joint Actions, stated this on Espreso TV.

“Beijing doesn’t oppose the U.S. being a powerful regional leader. China is even open to taking over the responsibility of the global currency, believing the yuan should replace the dollar—it sees that as more realistic now,” Rybachuk said

“But China is in no rush. It’s interested in watching Trump continue to undermine American democracy and the economy, in seeing Putin weakened, and in Europeans being constructive. Xi Jinping often singles out Europe, constantly showing them that—unlike Trump—he’s a predictable trade partner.”

Rybachuk emphasized that nuclear issues—especially the proliferation and potential use of tactical nuclear weapons—are of major concern to Beijing. Analysts suggest that, to truly destroy an Iranian nuclear bunker, a “bunker buster” bomb might require a tactical nuclear payload.

“China is closely and nervously watching to ensure no one, including Russia, actually uses tactical nukes. And it would be just as dangerous for China if the United States made such a move against Iran,” he noted. 

“According to international law, that would be considered an act of aggression—and it would set a precedent that Putin could exploit. He’s itching to act—those 'Oreshniks' aren’t reaching their targets, but the Kremlin dreams of making something explode and broadcasting it to show how they ‘restore order.’ For China, that would be a deeply unwanted scenario, and I think Beijing is paying very close attention.”

Rybachuk added that China continues to profit from Russia economically, effectively draining it of resources. Beijing is now Russia’s top buyer of goods—exports that continue to fuel Moscow’s war effort.

• Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth says that China is preparing for a war for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, which is why the U.S. will strengthen its deterrence of Beijing.