China supports 30-day ceasefire: what does this mean?

• The statement itself poses no "threat" to the Kremlin today, in the sense that Beijing is unlikely to take any prompting actions as a result. More precisely, they are possible if they are tied into a broader logic of agreements between America and China. 

• Beijing has demonstrated that they can become more actively involved in this process if asked.

• We must also clearly clarify one important thing: Moscow, despite its enormous economic and increasing political dependence on China, is not a vassal of Beijing, as many here believe. This is an important aspect in the sense that Beijing cannot simply and painlessly "extinguish" Russia in one fell swoop. Beijing can suffocate Russia in its embrace, but this is a process that requires not only time but also many courtesies, as China's satellites will be watching what it does and how it does it. Simply put, this is not a game of peace in 24 hours.

• As of now, Beijing's statement on a 30-day ceasefire is a proposal for dialogue with the United States and has no direct relation to the Istanbul negotiations. But everything will depend on whether the Americans want to ask Beijing to mediate today. Beijing understands perfectly well that without its intervention, Putin will disrupt the negotiations in Istanbul. Therefore, China is simply waiting: if there is an invitation now (the probability is still small), it will begin a diplomatic game. If not now, then with a high degree of probability, this invitation will appear in a few months.

And it's time for us to look at the world a little more broadly. Ukraine may not be needed by China, although I am ready to argue about that. But we are one of the significant centers of tension in the world, around which a great geopolitical game of several continents is being built.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political analyst.

The editorial does not always share the views expressed by the authors of blogs.