Ceasefire attempt emerges as most realistic scenario

This is simply because Putin is terrified of stopping his own war machine. The chances that all the points of the signed agreement will be fulfilled are even smaller, because much of what is written is very non-specific, and when the details emerge, the devil will be in them.

"The chances that the signed agreement will guarantee peace are nonexistent."

And if all of the above does happen, and everyone signs on to the 'Trump plan,' everything will depend on how Ukraine uses a potential pause in the war. If it is used to strengthen its defense capabilities, the pause will be long; if it is wasted on quarrels and populism, the pause will be very short.

For now, the most realistic scenario is an attempt at a ceasefire and the beginning of difficult negotiations on the details.

Source

About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.