Battle for Istanbul

After Putin mentioned the possibility of direct talks in Istanbul, Volodymyr Zelenskyy replied with a proposal for a face-to-face meeting, but only after a ceasefire starting Monday. The stakes are getting higher — but what exactly is at stake, and what risks does Istanbul hold for Ukraine?

May 9 this year clearly wasn't about victory over Nazism. Each side ran its own international PR campaign to rally support. Judging by Putin's bragging about Xi's visit, the event mattered to him mainly as a show of global backing. And unfortunately, he pulled it off, although partially. The presence of China and Brazil sent a clear signal: no matter Ukraine’s losses or sanctions, these countries aren't moved. Modi didn’t show up — for obvious reasons — but made his alliances clear with a separate visit. Erdogan was absent too, likely because he's trying to stay "neutral." We can ignore European minions — Fico, Vučić, and others. Putin showed that despite everything he's done, he’s not fully isolated.

Ukraine's side held its own mobilization. Starmer, Macron, Tusk, and Merz — key European figures — came to Kyiv. It was a strong signal that Europe isn’t backing away. There was also a group call to Trump, though that was more symbolic than serious. Ukraine also got clear public support for a ceasefire starting Monday. In reality, not much has changed in over three years of war — except the U.S., which has started saying out loud what it used to do quietly. So, the battle for Istanbul is shaping up a lot like it did in 2022 — and the outcome will likely be just as familiar.

In the flood of statements, the core issue gets lost — and that issue hasn’t changed. Putin hasn’t backed down on any demands. He’s been repeating the same “let’s return to Istanbul talks” line since the start of the year. Ukraine didn’t accept those conditions then, and it will not be accepting them now.

In this round, the focus is on a direct meeting and a ceasefire, even though nothing has shifted in the real conditions for ending the war. So really, it’s just another chapter in the battle over Trump, with each side trying to pin the failure of peace efforts on the other. But for Ukraine, this comes with serious risks.

Trump’s recent comments — and what’s coming from his circle — show he’s fed up and doesn’t believe peace is possible. He wants to quietly step away from this story. But of course, he’ll need to exit “with a win.” A face-to-face between Zelenskyy and Putin gives him that opportunity. He’ll say: “I got them to the table — they just didn’t want to talk. I did all I could.”

That won’t be a disaster for Ukraine and it won’t be a win for Putin either. If Trump drops his involvement in ending the war, at least it’ll spare a lot of nerves for those bombarded with propaganda about him "handing Ukraine over." We’ll still get weapons, funded by the Rare Earth Metals Fund and European programs. Unfortunately, tough sanctions on Putin aren’t coming. The rest will play out on the battlefield and in the oil market.

Here’s what I think will happen. There won’t be a ceasefire on Monday. Zelenskyy will still go to Istanbul. Putin won’t, but he’ll send a few underlings. There’ll be a meeting between diplomats, mediated by the Turks and Americans. Nothing will be resolved. Each side will accuse the other of blocking peace. Then comes the summer campaign — another round of grinding down Russian cannon fodder at the front.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

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