Avoiding Budapest Memorandum repeat: expert outlines Ukraine security guarantees

Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and co-founder of the Consortium for Defense Information, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"The phantom pains of the Budapest Memorandum remind us that even the signatures of the U.S. President and the UK Prime Minister do not add effectiveness to a paper document without proper practical support," the expert reminds.

According to Samus, after the meeting in Washington, it is already possible to formulate the basic approaches that the U.S. administration proposes for discussion to European allies and Ukraine: there are currently several options for the direct implementation of the idea of providing "security guarantees."

Among them is a training mission to prepare the Ukrainian Defense Forces: the deployment of foreign instructors directly on the territory of Ukraine. "This approach has two key advantages: it is cheaper and more operational than sending Ukrainian military personnel for training in Europe, and it creates a powerful political signal to the Kremlin. In fact, it will be the presence of European military personnel on Ukrainian soil, which deters Moscow from new escalations. However, Europeans will avoid the need for direct participation in combat operations in Ukraine," the expert comments.

Another option for guarantees is to provide air defense: the Coalition of the Willing will concentrate its efforts on providing air defense by various means, including patrolling with fighter aircraft, using drones, monitoring the air situation with radars, and taking other measures to prevent aggressive actions by Russia. "This scenario looks less risky from the point of view of direct Western involvement, but at the same time, it raises questions about effectiveness: are the allies ready to use weapons in case of aggressive actions by Russia? In fact, it is an intermediate option between demonstrating presence and real security guarantees," Samus notes.

Security guarantees similar to Article 5 of NATO, where a Russian attack on Ukraine would oblige the allies to consider the aggression as an attack on themselves, is another option for an agreement. "Although this scenario still looks more like a political message than a clear mechanism, it can become an important factor in deterring Putin, especially if key European states join it," the expert says.

Another scenario could copy the U.S. strategic approach to building bilateral security alliances with Japan and South Korea. "Washington could conclude an agreement with Kyiv on mutual defense and the deployment of American troops on Ukrainian territory. This model allows Ukraine to integrate into the Western security architecture even without formal NATO membership. At the same time, unlike other scenarios, this option provides for a permanent U.S. military presence and direct obligations to protect Ukraine, which is currently doubtful," Samus believes.

According to him, an integral element of any steps to ensure Ukraine's security and deter Russia is the formation of a common security system for Europe, including Ukraine, with the support of the United States and other countries.

"Paper agreements no longer work – for Russia, there are only armed arguments," the expert summarizes.

• On Monday, August 25, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, UK Foreign Minister David Lammy, and a number of European diplomats, during which the parties have discussed security guarantees and ways to achieve peace in Ukraine.