Attack on Russia’s nuclear triad: who will Putin hold responsible?

The triad consists of nuclear missiles launched from land-based silos, submarines, and aircraft. A strike on the aircraft component effectively forces Putin to consider a response.

The only question is: whom should he respond to?

The idea that Ukraine could successfully damage the nuclear triad would be humiliating for the Kremlin. Putin does not see Kyiv as a worthy adversary. That's why Russian propaganda constantly claims that Russia is at war with the West.

The very idea that small Ukraine can successfully resist the Russian army for years is unacceptable to Russians. They believe they’re fighting NATO, the collective West led by the U.S., or “Euro-Nazism” — the supposed involvement of all these forces serves as justification for the Kremlin's pensioners.

From day one, Putin has not been fighting Ukraine, but the West. He still is, as evident from leaked information about Russia’s negotiating stance in Istanbul. The discussion there centers on lifting European and U.S. sanctions and obtaining written guarantees from NATO countries that they will not admit Ukraine to the Alliance — demands not addressed to Ukraine.

In their worldview, then, it was NATO, the U.S., and Europe that attacked the nuclear triad. The American intelligence used was obtained a year and a half ago, under Biden. NATO’s logistics helped deliver the “boxes” used to launch the drones. It was all paid for with European money.

That is, a worthy response from Russia would be strikes against the U.S., Europe, and other NATO countries. Russia sees them as “parties to the conflict.” And when they destroy Russian nuclear forces, Russia must respond.

Obviously, there will be no response. There will be another 300 drones over Ukraine, which the world has unfortunately become accustomed to. But precisely because of this, the world will not regard it as a response to the destruction of Russian nuclear forces. On the contrary, the world will receive further confirmation that Russia's nuclear forces are an empty bluff. And support for Ukraine can help destroy the Kremlin's nuclear capabilities without any significant consequences for the rest of the world.

That’s why this attack is yet another confirmation of the need to increase support for Ukraine. Ukraine remains the strongest proof of Russia’s vulnerability and its inability to escalate in any truly nuclear way, beyond a few posts ghostwritten for Medvedev’s Telegram channel.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.