Espreso. Global
OPINION

Another round of Trump’s “two weeks” — still no clarity

Sofiia Turko
20 June, 2025 Friday
15:47

Donald Trump has postponed for two weeks a decision on possible U.S. involvement in Israel’s war against Iran

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White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt read a statement from President Trump emphasizing the high likelihood of negotiations with Iran in the near future. Trump has decided to make a decision about participating in these talks within the next two weeks.

The primary U.S. goals in these negotiations are to ensure that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not develop nuclear weapons and halts uranium enrichment. Previous talks between the U.S. and Iran have failed, largely because, while Iran pledged not to pursue nuclear weapons, it simultaneously insisted on maintaining its right to enrich uranium. Without this enrichment, observers argue, the ayatollah regime would have no real need for a nuclear program at all.

It has emerged that U.S. Special Representative Steve Witkoff has already held consultations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi amid ongoing exchanges of strikes between Israel and Iran. The outcome of these diplomatic contacts remains unclear. However, one result is already evident: the U.S. president has decided not to engage in Israel’s military operation against Iran for at least the next two weeks. This leaves Israel and Iran to continue their exchanges, with unpredictable consequences for both countries.

Observers believe that while Israel possesses far superior air defense systems, it has a limited stockpile of air defense munitions, especially against small-scale missile attacks. Iran, meanwhile, is likely to face growing instability during this period. Yet Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle may now have a chance to maintain their grip on power — if they can strike a deal with the United States under Trump’s terms.

Notably, Trump no longer demands full capitulation from Iran, as he did just days ago. He now appears open to negotiating with the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

An important question remains: if talks stall again, will Trump seek a third-party mediator? Vladimir Putin has repeatedly offered his services, most recently during a late-night press conference at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Trump, however, rejected the offer, stating that Putin should focus on his own affairs before intervening in the Iran crisis.

It is also evident that in previous rounds of U.S.-Iran negotiations, Tehran deliberately stalled, giving Trump and his team the illusion that progress was possible — while refusing any real concessions that could lead to the outcomes Trump seeks: not just a halt to nuclear weapon production, but a total end to uranium enrichment.

What happens in the current round of negotiations remains uncertain. At the very least, Iran will likely attempt to keep the talks going — not rejecting U.S. proposals outright, but not accepting them either — in hopes that Trump will agree to further extend negotiations two weeks from now.

Another unresolved issue is how Israel’s military operation against Iran will proceed in parallel with these talks. Trump appears to be taking a page from Vladimir Putin’s playbook: pursuing negotiations while allowing military action to continue. Just as Putin seeks talks with Ukraine while bombing civilian neighborhoods and launching ground offensives, Trump seems willing to hold talks with Iran while permitting Israel to continue its assault on the Islamic Republic.

So far, this campaign has already killed numerous senior Iranian military and political officials, including individuals directly involved in Iran’s nuclear weapons program. If the operation continues through the next two weeks, it may claim even more members of the Iranian establishment and nuclear apparatus. Even without eliminating all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel could severely disrupt Tehran’s human capital.

Still, it is important to note that Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear program on its own. Without U.S. strikes — particularly on the Fordow nuclear facility — Iran will retain its ability to enrich uranium and build nuclear weapons, even if it accepts Trump’s terms. This raises a key question: even if Ayatollah Khamenei hypothetically agrees to halt enrichment, how will compliance be monitored? Could Iran secretly build a new facility and continue weapons development despite its promises? Worse, might Russia provide Iran with nuclear weapons, directly challenging U.S. foreign policy?

If that happens, Washington could be facing a nuclear-armed Iran — one capable of striking both Israel and the U.S. homeland. And at this pace, it might not be Trump who has to answer those questions, but rather his successor in the White House.

Source

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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