2026. War and peace negotiations

1. All key actors proceed from a single position: dragging out negotiations will worsen Ukraine's negotiating position. This is the consensus that exists in the U.S., EU, and Russia.

2. Territories (Donbas first and foremost) Putin views as an exclusive precondition for real negotiations.

3. Besides territories, Putin would like to obtain three things as a result of negotiations:

• lifting of sanctions;

• return to geopolitics;

• gaining control over the new Ukrainian government.

4. The first two points the U.S., it seems, will be ready to support. However, Putin has great leeway for continuing the war, since he can always start talking about lifting European sanctions. Moreover, Putin can quite realistically demand preventing Zelenskyy from participating in elections.

5. In 2026, a split in the EU regarding sanctions policy will likely occur. Part of the EU countries (first and foremost, France and Italy) will proceed from the fact that in case of a decision to lift sanctions by the U.S., their businesses will be interested in partial return to trade with Russia. This in turn will push part of Europe toward lifting sanctions on Russia.

"6. No guarantees about Article 5 of NATO will protect us from future attacks by Russia. In reality, the key points of the agreement are: accession to the EU and allocation of funds for Ukraine. If they are not clearly specified (concrete dates and concrete figures) - this agreement will be close to the Budapest Memorandum."

7. Maintaining a large size of the Ukrainian army with financing from the EU is needed by Europe itself. There they view maintaining a large size of the Ukrainian army as one of the security guarantees for Europe.

Conclusions

Negotiations may conclude in the period between January and April. If they conclude successfully, we will get a peace agreement which, judging by everything, will provide for withdrawal from Donbas and relatively declarative security guarantees.

If by this time negotiations reach a deadlock, we enter into a summer-autumn military campaign with all corresponding consequences.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.