Russia may try to outflank Ukraine at Istanbul talks, political scientist warns

He shared this view on Espreso TV.

“Tomorrow in Istanbul, we could see another intriguing scenario. The Russians may try to beat us to the punch. They might have the nerve to announce first thing in the morning that they accept the idea of a 30-day truce — say, around 10 a.m. — and by 11 a.m. they’ll be insisting, ‘See, we agreed to a 30-day ceasefire.’ Under that scenario, we’d have to meet with them, because they’d have met the minimum condition set by Ukraine and our partners,” Reiterovych said.

The political analyst added that having U.S. representatives in Istanbul on May 15 would be a positive signal, since they’d be able to communicate immediately after the potential Ukraine–Russia talks.

“I don’t think the Russians will actually pull that off, but we shouldn’t rule it out. That’s why I’m really hoping our delegation, led by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will go there with clear instructions. At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio is expected in Istanbul, as well as Witkoff and Kellogg. That means we could quickly coordinate with them, too,” he added.

Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Istanbul

In a nighttime address on May 11, Russian leader Vladimir Putin claimed he was ready for direct talks with Ukraine in Turkey next week, but he dismissed the idea of a 30-day truce. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would keep working with both sides and predicted that the coming week would be “great.”

On May 12, the German government announced that if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of the day, European partners would begin preparations for new sanctions. In contrast, the Kremlin stated that “the language of ultimatums is unacceptable for Russia.”

Advisor to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would not meet with any Russian representative other than Vladimir Putin in Turkey on May 15.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the talks in Istanbul with Kyiv should recognize the "realities on the ground," including Russia’s incorporation of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed he will visit Turkey on May 15 to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He also said he is ready to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

• The upcoming talks in Istanbul are set to become a battleground not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for rival factions within the White House, as key American officials vie for dominance over U.S. foreign policy.