Russia may have another armed rebellion with "march on Moscow" – Ukraine’s top security official

The Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said on Twitter.

"The current situation for the Kremlin is such that the unfulfilled desire for a second offensive on Kyiv will be overshadowed by the urgent need to prepare to meet a second attack on Moscow," Danilov wrote.

According to him, this event is not too far off in time.

“The paste is squeezed out of the tube - the growth of protests by dissatisfied people of various colours in Russia - cannot be stuffed back in," Ukraine's top security official has warned.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

For several months, there has been a conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of Wagner PMC, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the situation escalated quickly on the evening of June 23.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The militants entered several regions and moved towards the Russian capital, while at the entrance to Moscow they built firing points, dug trenches and mobilised all security forces.

On June 24, Wagner’s fighters took control of Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and then entered the city of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would drop the criminal case against him.

On June 26, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced that it dropped the criminal case related to the armed plot, in which Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved.

Meanwhile, Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the main goal of the mutiny was "to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC, not to overthrow the government" and called it a "march of justice." He also claimed that the offensive on Moscow had stopped because the mercenaries "did not want to shed much blood."

On the same day, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, the Wagner mercenaries who arrived with him would not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed there.

On July 3, Russian media published photos taken by local residents showing an alleged Wagner camp in the Mogilev region of Belarus. In contrast, Ukrainian intelligence noted that Prigozhin is unlikely to move all the fighters to Belarus and will not stay there permanently. It is obviously a matter of redeploying some of the Wagner soldiers. 

On July 6, Lukashenko promises to discuss Wagner PMC's fate with Putin, convinced that Russian leader won't kill Prigozhin

On July 10, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that five days after the mutiny, Putin met with Prigozhin in the Kremlin.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On July 15, a large Wagner PMC convoy arrived in Belarus.

During the mutiny in Russia, some of the mercenaries of Wagner's private military company reached the Voronezh-45 base, a storage site for Russian nuclear weapons, according to Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

Read more on the events here.