Russia lacks reserves to intensify offensive in Luhansk region – ISW

The Russian army lacks reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive in the Luhansk region

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts stress that the major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. 

Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other special structures, the Institute's report says.

"The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations," analysts emphasize.

Russian forces may have some reconstituted mechanized units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to the Luhansk region frontline is unlikely to dramatically change the course of the ongoing offensive.

"The Russian offensive will very likely continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum as the final reserves are committed—if they are—but will very likely culminate well short of its objectives and likely short of achieving operationally significant gains," ISW believes.

Key ISW inflections in ongoing military operations on February 19: