Russia lacks reserves to intensify offensive in Luhansk region – ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts stress that the major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter. 

Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other special structures, the Institute's report says.

"The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations," analysts emphasize.

Russian forces may have some reconstituted mechanized units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to the Luhansk region frontline is unlikely to dramatically change the course of the ongoing offensive.

"The Russian offensive will very likely continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum as the final reserves are committed—if they are—but will very likely culminate well short of its objectives and likely short of achieving operationally significant gains," ISW believes.

Key ISW inflections in ongoing military operations on February 19:

• Fedir Venislavskyi, Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine's Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence stated that Russian forces have already deployed all their combat-ready units to the frontlines in Luhansk and Donetsk regions as well as parts of Zaporizhia region.

• Ukrainian forces will reportedly be able to deploy only 50 Western-provided tanks to frontline areas by April, out of a promised total of 320 tanks.

• Russia’s MoD confirmed that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 1st Army Corps and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 2nd Army Corps are official formations in the Russian Armed Forces.

• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that he may be interested in forming a paramilitary company of his own after completing his government service.

• The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Ukrainian officials were preparing a radiological false flag attack in order to accuse Russia of violating the Convention on Nuclear Safety ahead of the 11th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly.

• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna.

• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city. 

• Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar.

• Crimean occupation parliament head Vladimir Konstantinov stated that Crimean occupation officials nationalized tens of billions of rubles (at least 10 million USD) worth of Ukrainian property and plan to use funds from the sale of the property to support Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.

• Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are unable to repair modernized S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems near the frontlines due to logistics problems and have to transfer these systems to manufacturing plants in Russia.