Russia has no reserves to change frontline situation - military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Russia's new offensive

First, let's talk about Russia's major offensive, which even the foreign media scares us about. It has already begun and has been going on for the second week along the entire front line. The enemy is now concentrating its attempts to push our troops in the Kupiansk and Svatove directions, in the areas of Bakhmut, Mariinka, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. They are trying to find weaknesses in our defense, and then will try to use the gaps for deeper, tactical breakthroughs. This will be the second phase. But in reality, the enemy has no reserves to change the situation at the operational, let alone strategic, level. Currently, Russia has concentrated about 320,000 troops in Ukraine, with about 100,000 to 120,000 in reserve. This is not enough for a large-scale offensive from several directions. These talks about an offensive on Kyiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv are just a distraction of our attention, forces and reserves. The Russian military leadership has been instructed by Putin to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions first. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about the importance of the defense of the Donetsk region. He said that the most brutal and important fighting is taking place there. There is a confrontation that will determine a lot of what we are preparing in the near future.

This also applies to the defenders of the Bakhmut fortress. The enemy has been trying to capture it for 7 months. During this time, they have advanced about 40 kilometers, which is very little. Russia has deployed tens of thousands of its military near and around Bakhmut. But it still keeps trying to attack the city head-on and bypass it from the north and south.

The situation in the Bakhmut direction

Yevhen Oropay, company commander of the Svoboda battalion of the Ukrainian National Guard, said that the enemy continues to use artillery and is constantly deploying forces here.  They are constantly being repelled, eliminated, and neutralized. Their offensive has begun. Prigozhyn recanted his words that he would capture Bakhmut by the New Year. A new date was set - February 24. Yevhen Oropay is sure that this will not happen. Russia is launching with aviation and artillery. And tanks from time to time. We do not observe the same accumulation of equipment, as it was near Vuhledar. Our defenders are covering enemy positions in the north and south, working well at night. There are great sniper groups that have eliminated a good number of Russian soldiers over the past 2 days. The latter tried to take the positions. Now Bakhmut is fully controlled by Ukrainian defenders. Heavy fighting continues in the Bakhmut direction, i.e. in the eastern direction. In the southern Ukraine, closer to Ozarianivka, the enemy has recently increased its influence and is deploying many of its forces. More than 300 soldiers were brought in yesterday, half of them have already been eliminated. The enemy is launching aviation almost constantly: its aircraft take off once a day, twice, sometimes three times. From time to time they have to be shot down. However, the situation in the Bakhmut direction, at the Bakhmut fortress, is under control and just excellent for us. They are giving up an incredible amount of strength here. Russia has never spared its people, and now it's even more so. A lot of Russian soldiers are killed here per day, but unfortunately, we also have losses, our defenders are sacrificing their health, get very seriously wounded, there are dead comrades who sacrificed their lives defending their homeland. Yevhen Oropay urged us to remember these people. Many of the guys are in hospitals, and we need to remember the price they paid defending the country. Yevhen Oropay noted that Russian troops near Bakhmut are exerting much more effort than the Ukrainian. The more of them are eliminated here, the easier it will be for us to launch a counteroffensive in 2 to 3 months. There are a lot of them here, the occupiers land every day: 200 to 300 soldiers at some points. We need to systematically destroy them, shell their positions. This is what the Ukrainian Defense Forces are doing. Our partners may have plans to exhaust the enemy, but there are lives at stake. The more means we have in this area, the fewer Ukrainian defenders will die. We are looking forward to the supplies which we need.

Results of the Munich Security Conference

Now let's move on to the results of the Munich Security Conference, where the US leadership made a powerful statement about Russia's actions, although I expected it much earlier. 

Yuriy Vanetyk, a member of the Board of Directors of the international human rights agency WEST SUPPORT (USA), noted that the US position is very clear: there will be tougher sanctions against Russia, the creation of more powerful coalitions in Europe to isolate Russia more. This is what politicians in Washington say. 

According to Yuriy Vanetyk, the tribunal will take place only when the leadership in Russia changes, but when this will happen is a big question. 

There will be trials in Europe and the US for physical, moral, and economic damage. The political expert does not feel that the US support for Ukraine is falling. 

According to him, the attitude of Americans is very positive. There is a segment of the Republican Party that consists of 2 groups. One says that it is bad to support the war, because Ukrainians are dying for humanitarian reasons, and we need to surrender to the Russians. The other says that we should take care of ourselves and not participate in other people's conflicts. 

Yuriy Vanetyk noted that such people are in the minority and he does not feel that support for Ukraine is falling. 

A member of the Board of Directors of WEST SUPPORT suggested that the US aid packages do not include cluster munitions, aircraft, ATACMS because of the Republicans' pressure and fear of the war spilling over. This will change if the Republican Party takes office. 

Despite greater responsibility and slightly different rhetoric, military support will increase. Yuriy Vanetyk added that Russia's war against Ukraine also affects the future political agenda of US presidential candidates, as it is a huge war for humanitarian and political reasons. This is a geopolitical war with Russia, a war for whether there will be a colonial group, which Russia shows itself to be, or a problematic but democratic world. Therefore, those who are running now are talking about how they will change their support for Ukraine, how they will respond to Russia, how they will hold it accountable. 

The candidates are trying to differentiate themselves, to show how they differ from each other. These positions are rather internal, so Yuriy Vanetyk does not believe that Ukraine should react strongly to the rhetoric between Republicans and Democrats, as they are already preparing for the election. 

According to him, the US says that the collapse of the Russian Federation would be positive and possible, but they do not see it as likely. 

The only fear is that there will be obscure sovereign republics with nuclear weapons, but this is not much worse than what is happening in Russia now. This is a more theoretical conversation, and the US is taking actions other than sanctions that could lead to Russia's collapse. The US understands that a country can exist for a long time even under a serious sanctions regime, like Iran and other examples.