Russia revives Ukraine-style war narratives to set stage for possible Estonia conflict — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

According to analysts, the Kremlin is actively using rhetoric similar to that previously employed to justify the invasion of Ukraine. In particular, this includes the alleged protection of so-called “Russian compatriots” and accusations of persecution of Orthodox Christians.

ISW commented on a statement by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who accused Estonia of conducting a "hunt" against Orthodoxy. These accusations were supported both by Russia’s Foreign Ministry and the Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church, which claimed that Orthodox Christians are being oppressed in the country.

The Institute emphasizes that the Russian Orthodox Church has repeatedly been used by Moscow as a tool in hybrid operations, particularly in temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine and in post-Soviet countries, where religious rhetoric served as a cover for promoting pro-Kremlin and pro-war ideology.

Analysts note that the Kremlin has long been shaping an informational foundation for interfering in the affairs of the Baltic states, under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population or the rights of believers. In particular, the threat of such hybrid actions increases if Estonia adopts legislative changes that draw criticism from Russia.

ISW also supported the conclusions of Estonian intelligence that Russia is preparing for a potential confrontation with NATO, including the Baltic states.

• In 2025, Estonia plans to begin construction of fortifications with bunkers on the border with Russia.