Russia pushes Taiwan-Ukraine exchange narrative following Venezuela loss

Russian propaganda explains the situation with Maduro's abduction using a very clever term—a conclusive agreement, that is, an agreement that supposedly no one signed, but which is in effect. And the essence of this agreement is the exchange of Taiwan for Ukraine. Our problem lies in the excessive number of fools who are ready to fall for this verbal diarrhea.

1. For several days, Russian propaganda has been persistently searching for a way to turn its defeat in Caracas into a victory (after all, Russians never lose—this is the main principle of Russian propaganda for the last several centuries). And here, synchronously from two camps—war correspondents and liberals—we heard this version. War correspondent Kashevarova voiced it first, others picked it up, and then Vladimir Pastukhov added an intellectual veneer. He also proposed talking about a conclusive agreement.

2. This version doesn't withstand any criticism, at the very least because as of now, Trump is not going to surrender Taiwan under any circumstances. Even theoretical conversations about this before the November elections would kill the Republicans' ratings. After all, the issue of defending Taiwan still has bipartisan consensus. Simply put, such reasoning is classic conspiratorial nonsense. But unfortunately, our conspiracy theorists are beginning to broadcast this lunacy.

3. Separately, I want to draw attention to the fact that all this conspiratorial muck has important domestic Russian significance.

"The Kremlin's political bloc is clearly alarmed by the growing number of those who believe the war should be ended right now. And they are frantically groping for a new grand narrative that would make it possible to stop the growth in the number of those who want the war to stop."

Here the problem is not only in the numbers, but also in the fact that quantity can turn into silent rejection of the authorities' actions, which can intensify against the background of real and inevitable deterioration of life already today.

4. Ukraine's "attack" on Valdai was the first swallow of such searches (we must mobilize because Ukrainians wanted to kill Putin himself. Of course, the main motive there was to derail negotiations, but the side line was directed precisely at mobilizing society. But in terms of mobilization, this clearly didn't work. Now there's an attempt to tell people that just a little bit more and Russia will regain its greatness again. And the fact that there's little logic in this—doesn't matter.

5. I think this story won't 'fly.' But Russian propaganda will continue searching for a formula for why people need to endure a little longer. In other words, the propagandists aren't preparing for any peace yet. Unfortunately, their goal is to explain why the continuation of war is needed for Russians. This once again indirectly proves that as of now, the Kremlin is not considering an option where they could support a peace plan in one form or another.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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