Russia can easily attack NATO from Belarus
Putin and his gang are trying with all their might to bring the West to the negotiating table
A long war is not possible now due to limited resources, and Russia itself is a big but fragile country. If the Kremlin Politburo attacked NATO, it would give the Alliance only two options: to go to war with Russia or to find a quick agreement. The third option is not available. Moscow hopes NATO will choose the second option. By attacking NATO, Russia forces the bloc's leaders to make decisions quickly.
The attack wouldn't be a large-scale one, but rather symbolic. Russia has enough Wagner fighters, and Belarus is a suitable training ground for them.
Moscow may expect that the mere threat of a Wagner PMC attack on Poland or Lithuania will pressure the Alliance leaders to seek compromises faster.
About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.
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