The Western press, when reporting on CIA Director William Burns' secret trip to Kyiv, almost turned him into a courier: he flew halfway around the world to confirm the US commitment to sharing intelligence with Ukraine (сouldn't he have sent Budanov a text message instead?). In addition, "for some reason" no one noticed that a week and a half before that, Burns had also visited China incognito. You'll laugh, as Reuters reports, for a similar purpose, "CIA director emphasizes importance of maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels.”
What we have missed: Western intelligence agencies believe with a 50% probability that the orcs’ supreme bunker commander "will not survive politically" the next 3 months.
Putin is behaving weakly, and is not exerting the proper influence on the power elites who are hidden behind Russia's secret service, the FSB. This so-called elite, that is, the Kremlin's henchmen, will try to replace their weak leader with a stronger person.
“The instigator of the mutiny is not Prigozhin at all, he is only a tool of those who decided to organize a coup of the henchmen against their master. The coup is not over, we are in the middle of a power struggle in Russia.”
Putin can provoke a crisis to show the world his strength. Here it is worth deciphering that the Fuhrer uses nuclear power, including the Zaporizhzhia NPP, rather for threats, but in reality he will resort to less toxic sabotage, such as the blowing up of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. The Kremlin’s nuclear "tricks" would prompt an immediate response from the United States, but it got away with sabotage at a hydroelectric power plant. And there are still many facilities, various chemical plants, etc. in southern Ukraine.
Burns's China-Ukraine visits seem to have become an important stage in preparing for changes in Muscovy.
Read also: Why West views Russia’s collapse as "worst case scenario"
It is now clear that US intelligence knew in advance about Wagner’s seditious plans." Moreover, some evidence suggests that Beijing (which is close friends with FSB curator Patrushev) was directly involved in the preparation of Prigozhin’s coup. In the near future, some of the mercenaries will return to Africa and work... under the roof of the Chinese special services, which are pushing Russians out of the continent.
To make sure that the 50-50 bet on Putin's future plays out correctly, Patrushev and other Kremlin elders have some delicate tasks to perform. It is reasonable to assume that these tasks involve reevaluating Moscow's military plans. The aim is to prevent further man-made disasters on Ukrainian territory, as such incidents would hinder Patrushev's team from engaging in negotiations. Furthermore, the nature of the war should be transformed. Instead of an ongoing "special military operation" with no clear end, the Kremlin should express its willingness to find a way out of the stalemate. In other words, the FSB's primary task is to resolve Putin's "mishap."
This hypothesis is indirectly confirmed by sources from the CIA director's secret visit to Ukraine: Burns spoke with Ukrainian officials about the upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but from a position of strength: they talked about a ceasefire and the liberation of the occupied territories by the end of the year.
These are still the outlines of the plan, but it looks real, perhaps even more than 50% real. After all, now Putin's people not only want changes, but realize that they are possible.
About the author. Orest Sokhar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel.
The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.