Putin wants to reach borders of Donbas, everything else is distraction

1. Putin's priority remains to reach the borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This is the only goal of the 'special military operation', upon achieving which we can talk about success and start negotiations. I think that the Kremlin's current strategy is to reach the borders, organize a strong defense, repel our counteroffensive, negotiate and preserve the gains.

2. The main directions of the Russian offensive will be Lyman, Kupiansk, Vuhledar and Avdiivka. The invading Russian forces need to return to Lyman to advance on Sloviansk. Therefore, the Russian counteroffensive near Kreminna will be a priority. Kupiansk is an important transportation hub, and amid the possible delivery of missiles with a range of 160 km, it is important for the Russians to free supply routes for the troops. Vuhledar and Avdiivka are part of Putin's long-standing objective to push our troops away from Donetsk and reduce the threat of a breakthrough to Mariupol.

“Counteroffensives elsewhere will be only imitation. Let me remind you that for any offensive, it is necessary to create a 1 to 3 force advantage. The Russians will not have the strength to do this along the entire perimeter from Kyiv to Zaporizhzhia.”

3. Counteroffensives elsewhere will be only imitation. Let me remind you that for any offensive, it is necessary to create a 1 to 3 force advantage. To do this along the entire perimeter from Kyiv to Zaporizhzhia, the Russians will not have enough strength until the army has at least 3 to 5 million soldiers, and is fully equipped with the same weapons as at the beginning of the war.

4. Bakhmut continues to serve as a wearing-out point for Russian troops. The price is high, but the losses of the invading forces are enormous. The situation is the same as with Severodonetsk. The city did not play a strategic role, but it exhausted Russian troops and supplies so much that they de facto had to mobilize additional troops. Once again, Bakhmut should exhaust the enemy. Holding the city for other purposes makes no sense.

5. Barrages. If the Russians used a fire barrage near Severodonetsk, they are now using a ‘meat’ barrage. But, as in the first case, so now, success will be Pyrrhic victory (a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat - ed.). 

A big price paid for small gains. In fact, after the capture of Severodonetsk, the occupiers began to run out of artillery supplies. After Bakhmut, the Russians will have problems with ‘meat’. And it is not yet a fact that they will take it.

“Missiles with a range of 160 and 300 kilometers are the most important thing we can get today. These missiles alone could have stopped the occupiers' counteroffensive.”

6. Missiles with a range of 160 and 300 kilometers are the most important thing we can get today. These missiles alone could have stopped the occupiers' counteroffensive. Removing the rear bases would stop the advance of the Russian Federation for a long time. The West gives us everything, but it keeps giving it at the wrong time. Receiving these missiles last week would have dramatically changed the situation at the front. Receiving them a month later will mean a month of our losses.

7. Our mobilization continues. So is Putin's. This means that most of us will have to fight. For our counteroffensive, we also need to build a 1 to 3 force advantage. The more Putin mobilizes, the more we are forced to. You and I have no choice. We have to fight for our land, and for our lives and the lives of our families. Do not wait for this to pass you by. Get ready.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusov, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

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