Putin has nothing but war to “sell” to Trump

He is constantly offering something to the Americans — from the Arctic to Nord Stream — as long as the United States stops supporting Ukraine, curtails intelligence sharing, cancels the delivery of weapons already allocated, and lifts sanctions.

The Americans have demonstrated their readiness for such bidding. They have even formulated a clear list of proposals. It is most fully outlined in a document published in May entitled “Kellogg's 22 points”: American recognition of Russian jurisdiction over Crimea, lifting of sanctions and normalization of relations between the U.S. and Russia in exchange for an end to the war along the current front line, the creation of a 30 km deep demilitarized zone and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kharkiv region.

Regardless of how we feel about Trump and his “peacekeeping mission,” there is nothing to suggest that the United States has moved away from this position. It is enough to recall that in his second term, Trump has already twice extended the toughest sanctions against Russia, which were imposed under Obama and Biden.

The likely visit of U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg to Belarus to meet with Lukashenko fits the logic of how the United States sees its role: it is trying different formats of influence on Russia that do not involve a complete “drain” of Ukraine, but at the same time are not too costly. That is why even toxic options are being used, such as a dialog with Lukashenko. Obviously, the calculation is that he will be able to influence Putin and convince him to agree to American proposals.

Putin sees a U.S. withdrawal from supporting Ukraine as a welcome concession. But Washington believes that the Kremlin has not yet offered anything worthwhile to the United States or to Trump personally to get them to withdraw from the Ukrainian war. Putin's problem is that he has essentially nothing to offer the U.S. administration. Trump is raising money in the Middle East and the EU, where Russia has no competitive advantage. Natural resources in Africa and Latin America are much more abundant, and it is easier for the United States to contact local political regimes. Normal trade between the United States and Russia has never existed — Russia is a poor country that is unable to buy or sell anything of value on the American market.

The only thing left to Putin is political influence on external processes. But even here, his capabilities, particularly with regard to Iran, are rapidly losing value. Trump said so directly. In fact, the only thing Putin can “sell” to the United States is an end to the war against Ukraine. “Let's deal with Russia first, and you can deal with Iran later.”

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian MP

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.