Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war – Reuters

Sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters this.

Trump has threatened new sanctions and 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil — primarily China and India — unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in the ongoing war in Ukraine. But according to three sources familiar with internal Kremlin discussions, Putin is confident that Russia is winning and doubts that additional U.S. sanctions will have much impact after enduring over three years of mounting Western pressure.

While the Russian president doesn’t want to provoke Trump and is aware he could be forfeiting a chance to repair ties with Washington and the broader West, his military goals still take precedence, two of the sources said.

Putin aims to fully seize the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — all of which Russia has claimed as its own — before engaging in serious peace talks, one of the sources explained.

"If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book The Return of Russia.

Talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators — which have taken place three times since May — were primarily designed to signal to Trump that Moscow is not rejecting diplomacy, the first source said. However, these meetings have focused mostly on humanitarian exchanges and have lacked substantive progress.

Russia insists it is serious about reaching a long-term peace deal, but says the process is difficult due to the wide gap between both sides’ positions. Putin recently described the talks as “positive.”

Moscow’s demands include a full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four contested regions, as well as Kyiv’s acceptance of a neutral status and military limitations — conditions Ukraine has rejected. Still, signs of potential diplomacy remain: Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week amid rising tensions and public warnings about the risk of nuclear war.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment.

The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment. All sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Although Trump has in the past praised Putin and floated the idea of business deals between the two nations, he has recently become increasingly frustrated with the Russian leader. He has reportedly described Putin’s actions as "bullshit"and called Russia’s bombing campaign in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities "disgusting."

Tensions rise, but Putin stays the course

According to the first source, Putin is privately concerned about the worsening of U.S.-Russia relations. He still hopes to one day normalize relations with the United States and resume trade with the West, the source said, adding: “he is worried” about Trump’s mounting irritation.

Still, with Russian forces gaining ground on the battlefield and Ukraine facing mounting military pressure, Putin does not believe this is the time to pull back. The source added that neither the Russian public nor its military would understand a sudden halt.

Rodgers, the author, said Putin’s political reputation and legacy are now deeply tied to the outcome of the war.
"We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said.

While Putin values the relationship with Trump and wants to avoid antagonizing him, his priorities are clear.

"He simply has a top priority — Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source explained.

A third source familiar with Kremlin thinking echoed that view, saying there was little rationale for stopping military operations now, especially given the momentum of Russia’s summer offensive.

Ukraine has suffered some of its most significant territorial losses of 2025 over the past three months — including 502 square kilometers in July alone — according to the Finland-based military analysis group Black Bird. In total, Russia now occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory.

Still, analysts point out that Russia’s gains remain limited in scope. Since the beginning of 2024, Russia has captured just 5,000 square kilometers (about 1,930 square miles) — less than 1% of Ukraine’s total landmass, according to a June report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.

One of the sources noted that Russia’s General Staff has told Putin it expects Ukraine’s defensive front to collapse within two or three months — a forecast that appears to be shaping the Kremlin’s current strategy.