Putin does not want to die in nuclear fire

Putin’s greatest fear is an arms race with the U.S., which Russia would certainly not survive.

It was precisely an arms race, combined with low oil prices, that once collapsed the Soviet economy. Speaking of low oil prices as a means to influence Russia, Trump has so far only hinted that he is ready to use Reagan-era tactics against the Russian “evil empire,” though who knows what he might decide later.

Moreover, he has previously stated his intention to deploy the advanced U.S. missile defense system, the Golden Dome. Russia’s flawed air defense will never be able to compete with the latest American missile defenses, effectively destroying the nuclear parity between the U.S. and Russia.

So Putin has prepared a deal for Trump, which he outlined yesterday. Translated into plain language, it roughly means: “I will continue to scare Europe with the deployment of medium- and short-range missiles. But I am ready to extend the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty with the U.S. You, Donald, can go back to telling your Americans what a ‘peacemaker’ you are — rather than starting an arms race or talking about sanctions.”

I think Trump will buy into this story, although it will not radically change the current hybrid state of U.S.-Russia relations.

I also want to emphasize one important point I have mentioned several times. Putin is obsessed with prolonging his life. Under his direction, significant funds are being invested in this area in Russia, and he even raised the issue with Xi during their last meeting. That is why Putin does not want to die quickly in a nuclear fire. Therefore, on the nuclear front, one can expect bluffing and scare tactics from him, but not a global nuclear war.

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About the author. Serhii Taran, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.