Espreso. Global

President's Office predicts how war in Ukraine will end

28 August, 2023 Monday
16:35

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the President's Office, says that the war in Ukraine will end quickly and in an instant as it began. It's unlikely that every kilometer will have to be won back with blood

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He wrote about this on Twitter. 

"It won't be easy, but it is naive to think that Ukraine will have to regain territory by winning every kilometer with blood. As Ukrainian forces advance in the south and reach the administrative border with Crimea, events will take on a different shape. In the end, it will all end quickly and in an instant, just as it began," Podolyak tweeted. 

He added that all of Putin's domestic legitimacy is based on convincing Russian elites that he "has not lost the war yet."

"The Kremlin understands the inevitable: the more Russia loses the occupied territories, the faster support for the regime will decline," he wrote. 

In his opinion, the murder of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and the preparation of a new mobilization to saturate the front is "buying time."

"But the clock is already counting down," he added. 

Details regarding Prigozhin’s plane crash

On August 23, a business jet belonging to Yevgeny Prigozhin, an Embraer aircraft, crashed in Russia's Tver region, resulting in the confirmed deaths of 10 individuals. Among the passengers was Dmitry Utkin, a key figure in Wagner PMC. Multiple theories have emerged about the crash: 1) the plane might have been downed by an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system; 2) it could have been hit by air defense systems; 3) an explosion might have occurred onboard.

Subsequently, the Institute for the Study of War suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin might have ordered the assassination of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to reassert dominance and seek revenge.

One version from Russian media indicated that an explosive device was planted in the landing gear of the plane carrying Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. This device would have detonated at a specific moment, leading to wing and stabilizer detachment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine was not involved in the plane's downing and made light of the situation by joking that such "aircraft assistance" wasn't what Ukraine had asked for.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki speculated that after Prigozhin's probable death, Wagner operatives might continue to destabilize Belarus' neighboring countries.

The US officials suggest that the aircraft, carrying passengers linked to Wagner PMC leadership, was likely shot down by a missile from Russian territory.

The Russian leader also reacted to Prigozhin's death, referring to the Wagner leader as a man with a difficult fate who achieved necessary results but also made significant mistakes.

ISW analysts believe that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's willingness to publicly kill Wagner's leadership is likely to prompt the PMC's Council of Commanders to refrain from publicly appointing successors to Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin.

Experts in the investigation of the plane crash in the Tver region of Russia on August 27 have completed molecular genetic examinations. In particular, the study confirmed the death of the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

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