The New York Times newspaper believes that Ukraine has limited prospects for advancement in Donbas, where Russia has fortified positions and established supply lines since 2014. In order to advance elsewhere, the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to deter the Russian offensive and preserve troops and equipment.
Therefore, analysts believe that the most promising area for Ukraine's counteroffensive is south. A large part of the territory occupied by Russia is within the range of HIMARS missiles, which forced the invaders to move their ammunition depots, command centers, and other important supplies further away from the front line.
In such circumstances, Melitopol looks like an obvious target for the Ukrainian offensive: the city is located at the intersection of two major highways and an important railroad line, making it critical for supplying Russian troops in the south.
If Ukraine succeeds in splitting the Russian forces, it will significantly weaken Russia's control over the Kherson region. Without supply lines from the east, Russian reinforcements could only arrive via Crimea, a much longer route that is also within range of HIMARS missiles.
At the same time, the NYT notes that it will be difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to move forward. Russia has built defenses along the entire front line, and its densest network of trenches and anti-tank traps is located around Melitopol.
“Kyiv is hoping the West will quickly provide longer-range artillery that will allow its forces to once again disrupt Russian positions, the way they did when Ukraine recaptured swaths of the south, including Kherson city, in November 2022. That offensive was clearly telegraphed. This time, Ukraine wants to keep Russia guessing as to where and when it might strike,” the NYT concluded.
On February 9, the Institute for the Study of War reported that the pace of Russian operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line in western Luhansk region has increased, but it is weak and could turn into a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army.