How long would it take to build a nuclear bomb as world nears cascading proliferation?

The actions of Donald Trump’s administration in recent weeks have, if not completely dismantled global security architecture, at least led many nations to question whether the United States is truly a reliable partner and ally. As a result, Russia’s nuclear blackmail, which had previously gone unpunished, now appears to have tacit approval from Washington, Defense Express reports. 

This means the world is on the brink of a new nuclear arms race, where several developed countries may begin developing their own nuclear deterrents. The only factor that had previously held them back was confidence in the reliability of the U.S. security umbrella, making it unnecessary to strain relations. But if that security guarantee is gone and diplomatic ties are fraying, the choice becomes more obvious.

American Defense One published a detailed analysis, based on statements from U.S. officials and experts, describing the possibility of rapid nuclear proliferation across multiple nations. The biggest concern is that if just one country openly declares its nuclear ambitions, the doctrine of nuclear non-proliferation could become obsolete.

Among developed countries, South Korea may be the first to take this step. In 2022, Seoul had already outlined the conditions that would trigger the development of its nuclear program.

U.S. experts believe that if South Korea begins its nuclear program, Japan will follow suit. Given that Japan has the world’s third or fourth-largest economy, it could likely achieve nuclear capability as efficiently as South Korea, which ranks 12th or 13th. If North Korea—ranked around 130th to 140th globally—managed to develop nuclear technology from the 1940s, Japan would have no significant barriers to producing its own nuclear arsenal. Even hydrogen bombs, which emerged only seven years after atomic bombs, would not be out of reach.

In Europe, France has proposed extending its nuclear umbrella across the continent, but no specific plan has been outlined. As a result, Poland’s government has openly discussed the possibility of developing its own nuclear weapons. If that happens, the idea of Germany—the world’s third or fourth-largest economy—acquiring nuclear capabilities would no longer seem unrealistic.

It’s worth noting that Sweden was actively working on nuclear weapons in the 1950s and 60s but halted its program under U.S. pressure. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, U.S. officials have identified Saudi Arabia as the most likely candidate to pursue nuclear armament.

Unnamed American officials have also estimated that a developed country could establish a nuclear program in a minimum of one year if it already has access to the nuclear fuel cycle. This includes uranium, enrichment facilities, and nuclear fuel production. However, actual timelines could be longer, as nuclear weapons development involves not only enrichment but also warhead manufacturing and delivery system production.

Additionally, the publication links the current high risk of nuclear proliferation to Donald Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Since then, Iran has come closer than ever to achieving nuclear status—or at least announcing it. Trump also failed to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs despite his administration’s claims and did not negotiate changes to the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) with Russia.