"Most significant challenge to Russian state” – UK's intelligence on situation in Russia

The information was shared in the latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine published on June 24. 

The analysts noted that the old feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the Russian Defence Ministry escalated into outright military confrontation.

“In an operation characterised by Prigozhin as a ‘march for freedom’, Wagner Group forces crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations. In Rostov-on-Don, Wagner has almost certainly occupied key security sites, including the HQ which runs Russia’s military operations in Ukraine,” the statement said.

The UK’s intelligence noted that further Wagner units were moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, aiming to get to Moscow. While the evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces is very limited, some have remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.

“Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times,” the report concluded.