Ukraine's air defense gaps expose critical vulnerabilities to Russian drones

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue on his Telegram channel.

Recent waves of Russian drone attacks deep into Ukrainian territory have sparked a flurry of speculation and alarmist predictions in the media. However, experts caution that while the situation is serious, it is not yet catastrophic. What is clear, though, is that Russia has significantly increased the frequency and complexity of its strikes in 2025, often combining 'kamikaze' drones with decoy drones to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

A key challenge for Ukraine’s air defense has been Russia’s constantly shifting tactics, particularly changes in drone flight altitudes. This has forced Ukrainian forces to rely more heavily on short- and medium-range air defense systems, rapidly depleting their missile stockpiles. 

While Western media and officials frequently highlight the role of high-profile systems like the American Patriot and the European SAMP/T, a recent article in France’s Le Monde points out a growing shortage of ammunition not only for these flagship systems but also for less-publicized, yet crucial, short-range systems such as the French Crotale.

Analysts warn that the focus on big-name Western systems has overshadowed the urgent need for a layered, comprehensive air defense strategy. Soviet-era short-range systems like the S-125, Strela-10, and Osa, as well as Western alternatives like Crotale and Alvis Stormer, have received little attention in public discourse, despite their vital role in countering low-flying drones. The lack of investment and publicity for these systems has left gaps in Ukraine’s defenses, especially as Russian drones increasingly operate at altitudes that evade mobile ground fire groups.

The consequences are already visible. Ukraine’s interception rate for Shahed-136 drones has dropped from 97% at the start of 2025 to 82%, as more drones slip through the cracks. In some cases, expensive fighter jets like the F-16 are being deployed to intercept drones that could be more efficiently handled by cheaper, specialized aircraft or short-range missile systems—if only they were available in sufficient numbers.

Experts argue that Ukraine’s air defense planning has been too narrowly focused, neglecting the need for a balanced mix of systems. 

As a result, calls are growing for international partners to urgently supply not just more Patriots and SAMP/Ts, but also the short-range systems that are essential for maintaining a high rate of successful interceptions in the face of Russia’s evolving drone threat.