Ukraine focuses on expanding military space capabilities. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Russia strikes Ukraine with Shahed drones

The fact that Russian forces did not use Shahed drones for attacks on Ukraine for the first time in a long period on the night of April 1, as expected, was an exception. This exception was likely due to difficult weather conditions rather than the Russia's desire to adhere to an energy or any other ceasefire.

Because yesterday, the Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that on the night of April 2, Russian troops attacked Ukraine with both Shahed drones and UAVs of various types used as decoys. A total of 74 drones were launched, 41 of which were destroyed in the northern, southern, and eastern parts of the country. 20 Russian UAVs were lost locally without causing any damage. Mobile fire groups, electronic warfare units, anti-aircraft missile forces, and fighter aviation were used to repel the Russian attack.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian Air Force Command also shared an interesting video showing the work of a MiG-29 fighter jet in shooting down Shahed drones. The Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot with the call sign DENFIX explains the entire combat algorithm. After the Shaheds enter Ukrainian airspace, the Air Force raises another aircraft. The pilot then receives information about the target's parameters, speed, altitude, and flight direction, followed by a target search, locking it in the sights, and destroying it with a missile.

The pilot explains that shooting down a slow-moving strike drone with missile armament from a high-speed aircraft is not as simple as it may seem. He doesn't explain all the difficulties, but I would add that the MiG-29's radar doesn't always allow the target to be distinguished from the background of the earth's surface, so close cooperation with ground radar stations, which monitor airspace, is necessary.

There is also a significant difference in speed. If I'm not mistaken, the speed of a Shahed is about 180 kilometers per hour, while the MiG-29's speed at low altitude is around 1,500 kilometers per hour. Additionally, there are risks that the debris from the Shahed could hit the aircraft itself, so there are more than enough challenges. However, the combat record of MiG-29 pilot DENFIX already includes over twenty destroyed cruise missiles and drones.

Moreover, in March, Russia launched over 4,000 Shaheds and other drones against Ukraine. This is, by the way, the highest number since Russia started using these attack weapons. More than 4,000 drones in a month is the largest figure during this entire period. Last year, we know Russia managed to produce around 10,000 Shaheds or Geran-2s.

                                                                                                                                            Russian Shahed-type drone losses, April 2022-March 2025

This year, intelligence reports indicate that Russia aims to increase this number to 15,000 per year, sometimes up to 2,000 per month. Whether the Russians will achieve this remains to be seen, but we also know that they are now trying to protect their Shaheds from Ukraine's electronic warfare systems.

Since the beginning of the year, nearly every month, debris from these Shaheds or Geran drones has contained evidence of continuous updates to the Kometa antenna modules used for receiving satellite signals. Russia is constantly modifying them to reduce the effectiveness of Ukraine's electronic warfare systems.

But I’d like to remind you that, in addition to electronic warfare systems, aviation systems, air defense missile systems, and other measures, the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces already have domestically produced drones designed to intercept Shaheds. Reports have confirmed their successful use in destroying Russian attack drones, with each interceptor drone costing around $5,000 per unit. From an efficiency standpoint, this seems to be the most optimal approach to intercepting Shaheds, each of which costs over $200,000.

In any case, the technological race between the Ukrainian defense industry and Russian one continues. Both sides are developing better air combat tactics. Hopefully, the Ukrainian military will maintain the lead in this war.

Military space

And now, let’s talk about military space. Do you remember the incident when access to American satellite imagery for Ukraine was cut off? That happened around early March, and it made everyone realize just how crucial satellite systems are for obtaining real-time information—both for identifying battlefield targets and assessing the aftermath of strikes.

We especially remember the case of Engels-2, when satellite images confirmed the effectiveness of Ukraine's strikes. Ukrainian drones destroyed 96 Russian cruise missiles right at the Engels-2 airbase, which Russia uses for stationing strategic bombers and stockpiling Kh-101 missiles.

We are also aware of the threats of Starlink being shut down, and right now, Ukrainian military command and control heavily depends on it. Efforts are actively underway to find alternative solutions to avoid this potential trap. And whether by coincidence or not, a few days ago, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the creation of a new department within the defense agency.

This is the Directorate of Space Policy. Its main goal is to consolidate internal and external capabilities for developing Ukraine’s military space sector. By 2030, the Ministry of Defense plans to have national satellites for defense purposes, a new air raid warning system, and systems for monitoring outer space. We discussed these goals, plans, and capabilities with Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies and co-founder of the Defense Information Consortium, which brings together several Ukrainian analytical organizations.

A few days ago, the Space for Ukraine forum took place, where Valentyn Badrak was one of the participants. The Defense Information Consortium prepared analytical data for the forum’s attendees. He spoke about the current objectives in the space sector and whether these new goals align with Ukraine’s capabilities.

"First of all, I want to say that this is an extremely important decision because modern warfare is moving toward multidomain operations. Space will undoubtedly play a role in this, and the threat from Russia is immense. Let me remind you that in 2022, three weeks before the full-scale invasion, a satellite was launched, which, according to assessments by American analysts and intelligence, could potentially carry nuclear weapons or materials to destroy other space-based assets. That is why this is so important.

Why now? Because after numerous diplomatic setbacks with the new Trump administration, Europe has realized that it must build its own defense capabilities—and it must do so together with Ukraine. It is crucial that Ukraine has taken on the space domain. I believe it is very important that the Ministry of Defense has dared to claim leadership in this area. Leadership is necessary. And now, a bit of unfortunate reality—Ukraine has not had a National Space Program since 2018. Meanwhile, the Space Agency is under the Ministry of Strategic Industries, which, in my opinion, has completely failed in managing space activities and the space program," Badrak said.

Therefore, all the lost opportunities must be regained. To do so, the management paradigm needs to change. First and foremost, Badrak believes that the Space Agency should be removed from the Ministry of Strategic Industries and placed directly under the Cabinet of Ministers as a central executive body.

"And under no circumstances—although such intentions existed—should certain enterprises be transferred under the management of Ukroboronprom. That would completely destroy Ukraine’s space industry, just as it happened with Antonov (Ukrainian state aviation enterprise - ed.). Let me remind you that Antonov, which has been under Ukroboronprom since 2014, has not produced a single aircraft since then. It is crucial to prevent the same fate from befalling our space sector.

Regarding the forum, there was extraordinary attention and significant interest from foreign companies, including commercial ones. In fact, even before the forum, news emerged that Ukraine had begun forming a space grouping, starting with the Czech Republic. Today, it was reported that the Czech Republic's first reconnaissance satellite, launched earlier this year, has become operational and has started providing imagery. This is highly symbolic," the expert said.

He also noted that there are significant prospects for cooperation with France.

"The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense needs to collaborate—this refers to cooperation at the level of private companies, but these are very powerful companies specializing in modern microsatellites. The goal is to achieve an annual launch of three to five microsatellites, eventually forming a constellation of up to 30 satellites by 2030, as declared by the Ministry of Defense. It is essential to facilitate this process by granting private companies the green light. On Ukraine’s side, the New Energy of Ukraine alliance could play a key role, while on France’s side, the well-known and influential Prometheus company could contribute. This partnership could provide a major boost within Europe for building defense self-sufficiency together with Ukraine," said Valentyn Badrak.

This initiative should encompass not only space-based navigation, reconnaissance, and missile attack warning systems but also joint missile development and production.

"The concept involves both a missile shield and a missile sword. Ukraine has made certain advancements in ballistic missiles, which could become a valuable asset for Europe in missile development and expansion. Notably, Europe lacks domestically produced long-range missiles, having relied on the United States. Now, the Americans are reportedly very concerned. According to a Reuters report, Marco Rubio recently told several foreign ministers that Washington would react negatively if American companies were pushed out of EU defense tenders. The U.S. strongly prefers that European countries purchase American weapons. Some American companies are already taking precautions by establishing a presence in Europe," he explained.

At the same time, regarding the Space for Ukraine forum, Valentyn Badrak noted that representatives of the General Staff of Ukraine were not in attendance.

"To be honest, I didn’t see any representatives from the General Staff (at the forum - ed.), but the logic probably lies in the fact that the next step for Ukraine should be the establishment of a Space Force Command within the structure of the General Staff. This is logical, especially considering that Russia did this back in 2015, and now countries like Peru, Egypt, and many others, around 15 in total, have such space commands. For Ukraine, it’s very important to move towards the creation of a Space Force Command. This will provide momentum for planning and joint actions. During the forum, the commanders of the space forces from France and the United Kingdom spoke. Among other things, they consider Ukraine as a powerful, full-fledged partner, and undoubtedly, a country that must transition to multi-domain operations, including against a powerful enemy like Russia. So that’s how it seems," he said.

The expert believes that this is still a moment of regrouping for Ukraine’s military leadership on this issue. Because, apart from satellites, there are still many other matters to address.

"Ground infrastructure, electronic warfare systems, ground-based weapons, including those with laser devices, electromagnetic devices—everything needs to be integrated into a single system. And in fact, this is what is happening, and importantly, Europeans are ready to help because, as I mentioned regarding the potential collaboration with France, there’s the possibility of using European Union financial funds. The involvement of European financial and technological resources is key to solving these issues.

It’s important to do this very quickly. Because if the war is frozen or stopped this year, Russia will have a very fast opportunity to reload its gun and prepare for an attack on NATO. I believe this could happen as early as 2027, not as some think. For example, the head of German intelligence recently said it would be by 2030. I think Russia could regroup much sooner. The danger is very great, and the question is how quickly we can work with Europe on these three issues: space, missiles, and personnel. There’s also another issue—nuclear weapons—but I won’t touch on that for now," he noted.

He also commented on the financial aspect of the issue—where to find funds for such ambitious goals.

"The costs here are very large. For example, if you look at the open information regarding the Americans and how they allocate their funds, NASA’s civilian space budget was $24 billion last year, and the space command budget was as much as $29 billion. This equals the entire budget of Poland, and this is just for military space. And Poland, in turn, is a leader in NATO spending relative to its GDP, at 4.8% of GDP. Or you can compare it to Israel. Israel spends about $50 billion, while the U.S. actually spends more on space. So, I believe there is an opportunity, and Europeans are ready for this as well. These are EU funds. And perhaps these are the funds from the €800 billion that Ursula von der Leyen has mentioned several times. Europe can indeed find such resources, and in the next 4–6 years, it will operate such resources," he reminded.

Valentyn Badrak emphasized that Europe has started to view Ukraine as part of its own security architecture, and without Ukraine, the security structure of Europe will not work.

“They understand this and will spend money on it. There will be joint projects. And the second point is investment, commercialization, because we know that, for example, those 7,086 spacecraft of Elon Musk's SpaceX are a commercial project, but they work for security and defense. And, in fact, after Musk's missteps, after his dangerous statements, Europe is now very focused, grouped, and ready to overcome these distances together with Ukraine. Well, because we know that Europe's largest project, Eutelsat OneWeb, has only about 700 commercial spacecraft that can be used for military purposes.

Well, because we know that Europe's largest project, Eutelsat OneWeb, has only about 700 commercial spacecraft that can be used for military purposes. And significant investments may come with this. If we receive such investments, it will be joint businesses with Europe. This is a very important stage for Ukraine, for the formation of Ukraine's future, and for ensuring stable security for the coming decades," said military expert, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, Valentyn Badrak.