Threat to Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia: ISW warns Russia may exploit ceasefire

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

“Russian troops on the Dnipro River could use a ceasefire to prepare for the extremely difficult task of conducting an opposed river crossing undisturbed, significantly increasing the likelihood of success in such an endeavor. Stopping a well-prepared, major mechanized offensive cold is extremely rare in war, which means that a renewed Russian assault would likely threaten both Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia cities, as well as key cities in the Donetsk "fortress belt," almost immediately,” ISW warns.

The institute also noted that Russia is building a large highway and railway aimed at connecting major occupied Ukrainian cities with Russia. This would strengthen Moscow’s control over occupied territories and its ability to transport and supply Russian forces operating in Ukraine in the event of a possible offensive in the south.

“Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukrainian lands and significant portions of non-occupied Ukraine,” ISW emphasized.

Experts analyzed recent statements by senior Russian officials and concluded that Russia is not showing any willingness to compromise on its territorial or security demands regarding Ukraine.

• On March 11, a meeting between Ukrainian and American delegations took place in Jeddah, after which Kyiv agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, and the U.S. agreed to resume intelligence sharing and security assistance.
• On March 13, Putin stated that Russia was willing to halt hostilities in Ukraine, but “this must lead to a lasting peace.” Meanwhile, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Andrii Kovalenko, noted that the mention of “nuances” is typical Russian behavior in international politics. “It is important to understand that Russia’s information strategy will always aim to blame Ukraine for its own violations, make strange demands, and repeat the same approach as during the Minsk agreements,” he said.
• On March 14, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that during negotiations with the U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia, the issue of territories was raised, despite it not being on the official meeting agenda.