Successful U.S. action in Iran sends signal Putin can’t ignore — former Pentagon official Brzezinski

This was said by Ian Brzezinski, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Policy, in an interview with Antin Borkovskyi on Espreso TV.

"If the use of force by the United States and Israel proves successful, it could serve as a powerful reminder of the overwhelming military capabilities of the United States, something that Russia and Putin would take note of. But if, after the summit, the conflict in the Middle East escalates into a wider and more protracted war that entangles the United States and spreads across the region, it would divert resources and attention away from Ukraine, particularly on the part of the United States," he said.

The expert also said that if things go badly, it could make the U.S. look weak and outstretched, and it could further divide the transatlantic alliance.

"That outcome would undoubtedly harm Ukraine’s interests and diminish the West’s, especially the United States’, ability to maintain its focus and support for Ukraine. That is the risk. And that is how the conflict in the Middle East will cast a shadow over tomorrow’s events in The Hague," Brzezinski added.

He emphasized that the full effect of the Middle East crisis, especially the military strikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iran, on the war between Russia and Ukraine is still to be determined.

"If the U.S. and Israeli strikes prove effective in bringing the war to an end and curbing Iran’s nuclear program, that would demonstrate American strength, effectiveness, and power. Such a display would certainly resonate in Moscow. However, if the conflict proves more difficult to resolve and evolves into a protracted, wider regional war, it would bog down the United States. It would tie up U.S. resources that could otherwise support Ukraine, including military equipment, political focus, and the attention of U.S. leadership," the expert said.

Brzezinski said he believes this will most likely make Russia act even more aggressively.

"This situation is still unfolding, and its ultimate impact on Ukraine remains uncertain. Right now, due to the military effectiveness of the strikes, especially the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, it appears to be a strong display of American military capability. But the situation on the ground in the Middle East is not yet resolved," he concluded.

Background

On the night of June 13, Israel launched a big operation against Iran, striking its nuclear and military sites first. Fox News said Israel tricked the Iranian air force leaders by calling them to a meeting before the strikes. After the attack, U.S. President Donald Trump praised the strikes and urged Iran to make a deal “before it’s too late.”

Later, Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. might strike Iran’s underground nuclear site at Fordow if needed to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran does not want to spread the conflict to nearby countries but will defend itself if needed.

On June 18, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that if the US joins the conflict, it could cause serious and irreversible problems. That same day, Trump avoided directly answering questions about possible US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.

On the night of June 22, 2025, Trump announced that the U.S. had launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. He said Israel and Iran agreed to a full ceasefire for 12 hours starting the morning of June 24.

On June 24, Iran declared it had won against Israel, saying “the enemy had no choice but to retreat.” 

The U.S. CIA confirmed Iran’s nuclear program was seriously damaged by the strikes. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the U.S. strikes caused heavy damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.