Russia’s attempts to form 20 km "buffer zone" in Ukraine will take years, if ever — military observer

Ukrainian military and political observer Oleksand Kovalenko shared his analysis.

“The length of the controlled border between Ukraine and Russia in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions is currently about 860 kilometers,” Kovalenko points out.

If a buffer zone with a depth of 20 kilometers were to be established along this entire stretch, it would cover an area exceeding 17,000 square kilometers.

To put this into perspective, throughout the entire year of 2024, the invading Russian forces managed to seize just over 3,200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. In the almost half of 2025 completed so far, they have captured 1,015 square kilometers.

The observer raises the critical question: “How many years will it take the Russians to form this so-called ‘buffer’ zone?” Especially when factoring in not only these numbers but also the declining offensive capabilities of Russian forces and their resource concentration in other directions.

Kovalenko further emphasizes the stalled progress of Russian offensives: “In May 2024, they launched an attack in northern Kharkiv, but over the course of a year, they have been unable to expand their control significantly in the Vovchansk and Hlyboke areas.”

While acknowledging the ongoing threat, Kovalenko notes, “Yes, they will continue to terrorize Sumy, Kharkiv, and border towns with drone strikes, artillery, and missiles. Yes, they will attempt incursions and sabotage in the border zone. But they simply do not have the potential to realize these grandiose plans — not to mention the full capture of Sumy region or Sumy city itself.”