Kh-101 missile production: Is Russia succeeding in scaling up?

Defense Express reported the information.

A recent analysis of procurement documents and supply chains has cast doubt on Russia’s claims of dramatically expanding its production of Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles. According to a detailed investigation by a private intelligence company, Russia’s main supplier of foreign components for missile manufacturing, TRV-Engineering, has been central to efforts to boost output for the defense conglomerate Tactical Missile Armament. The study reveals that, while Russian officials have repeatedly announced ambitious plans to ramp up weapons and missile production, the actual numbers tell a more restrained story.

For 2025, Russia has set a target of producing 633 Kh-101 missiles, which averages to about 53 missiles per month. This represents only a moderate increase from previous years. 

Ukrainian intelligence reported that in 2023, Russia produced approximately 460 Kh-101 missiles, or about 38 per month, while in 2022, the figure was around 250-260 missiles, averaging just over 20 per month. 

The data suggests that the most significant jump in production occurred when Russia shifted its defense industry to a wartime footing, introducing multi-shift work schedules and prioritizing military output. However, since then, the pace of growth has slowed, and production appears to have reached a plateau.

The analysis also highlights Russia’s ongoing dependence on foreign-sourced components, particularly electronics from Belarus and tantalum from Kazakhstan and China. These supply chains remain vulnerable to disruption, and the availability of critical parts continues to limit Russia’s ability to further scale up missile production. Despite substantial efforts and investments, the Russian defense industry has not been able to fully overcome these bottlenecks.

Experts say that Russia’s experience with the Kh-101 program illustrates the broader challenges facing its military-industrial complex. While initial measures allowed for a rapid increase in output, the lack of domestic alternatives for key components and the difficulty of securing reliable foreign supplies have imposed a “glass ceiling” on further expansion. As a result, Russia’s much-publicized drive to dramatically increase missile production has so far fallen short of its own projections, raising questions about the sustainability of its military operations in the long term.