Russian forces in Belarus not sufficient for major attack on Kyiv during Zapad-2025 drills — expert

Military expert Oleksand Kovalenko wrote this in his article for Obozrevatel media outlet.

As the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus approach this September, anxiety is mounting in Ukraine over the possibility of a renewed Russian assault from the north. Ukrainian media and officials have voiced fears that Moscow could use the drills as cover for a new invasion, reminiscent of the February 2022 attack that targeted Kyiv and other northern regions.

Cities such as Chernihiv, Rivne, Lutsk, Zhytomyr, and especially Kyiv are seen as potential targets should Russia attempt another incursion. The capture of Kyiv remains a strategic priority for the Kremlin, as it would allow Moscow to install a puppet regime in the Ukrainian capital—a goal it failed to achieve in 2022.

Russian military presence in Belarus

However, military analysts caution that the current threat level does not match the alarm. In 2022, Russia launched its assault on Kyiv with an elite force of around 40,000 troops, supported by heavy artillery and air power. Despite this, Russian forces suffered significant losses and were forced to retreat within a month. More recent Russian offensives in Kharkiv and Sumy regions, even with larger troop numbers, have resulted in only limited territorial gains and have quickly stalled.

Today, the Russian military presence in Belarus is minimal—estimated at about 2,000 personnel, mostly technical staff and support units, scattered across several locations. There are also around 100 Wagner Group mercenaries, but experts say these numbers are far from sufficient for a major offensive. For a full-scale attack on northern Ukraine, Russia would need to amass at least 120,000 troops, along with thousands of tanks and armored vehicles—resources it currently lacks, both in Belarus and within its own armed forces.

Moreover, Russia faces significant equipment shortages, reportedly resorting to purchasing weapons from North Korea. Any attempt to build up a strike force in Belarus would likely require a nationwide mobilization, a politically risky move for the Kremlin.

Risk of large-scale invasion from Belarus

While the possibility of provocations or sabotage operations from Belarus cannot be ruled out, Ukrainian officials believe that, for now, the risk of a large-scale invasion from the north remains low. The situation could change if Russia manages to significantly reinforce its military presence in Belarus, but such a buildup would be difficult to conceal and would likely trigger a strong response from Ukraine and its allies.

In summary, although the threat of a new Russian offensive from Belarus persists as long as the war continues and Alexander Lukashenko remains in power, the current military reality makes a repeat of the 2022 invasion unlikely in the near term. Ukrainian authorities remain vigilant, but for now, the specter of a northern assault appears more a matter of concern than imminent danger.

What is known about Zapad-2025 drills

On October 23, 2024, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced joint exercises with Russia called Zapad-2025. They are scheduled for mid-September 2025.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated that NATO is ready to respond to the joint Russian-Belarusian drills.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Russians are "preparing something" in Belarus this summer under the cover of military exercises.

It was later reported that during the Zapad-2025 joint exercises, Russian and Belarusian forces plan to simulate strikes with tactical nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik system.

On May 28, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced that Belarus would move the main maneuvers of the planned Zapad-2025 drills deeper into the country, allegedly to reduce tensions.