Russian drones in Poland aim to test NATO response, gather intel — military expert

Defense Express development director Valerii Riabykh stated this on Espreso TV.

“This attack is quite unique, particularly considering that a significant number of the means used flew into Poland, both from the territory of Ukraine and across Belarus. According to what Polish media reported — and this was also mentioned in Belarusian media — the Belarusians allegedly warned them. It is claimed that only thanks to this warning Poland was able to respond in time. Allegedly, the security of Poland now depends on timely notifications from Belarusian territory,” he said.

The expert called such claims a certain nonsense.

“I consider this mass missile-and-drone strike to have been carried out precisely during the active preparations for the final phase of the Zapad-2025 exercises. This means that from September 12 to 16, troops will be actively involved in these actions. The exercises are already ongoing: headquarters are functioning, and practical measures are being rehearsed. I see this combined mass attack on Ukraine, with the element of also striking NATO territory, as part of a scenario preparing for the active phase of the drills,” Riabykh explained.

He also described what kinds of drones might have been used:

“First of all, based on an analysis of the means that were flying there — contrary to what is reported, including in the Western press, which claimed they were Shaheds — the analysis of objective data shows that at least those we were able to identify were Geran drones. These can be used both as decoy drones, strike drones, and reconnaissance drones. While there is no objective information yet about what payload they carried, it is very likely that such drones were primarily used for reconnaissance purposes, to assess NATO member Poland’s reaction to such actions,” the expert noted.

He added that this is mostly indicative of an operation testing the limits of a possible military response.

“Now, depending on the response from Poland and NATO member states, further actions will be adjusted — both those prepared for the active phase of Zapad-2025 and during the drills themselves. This could include making certain corrections to the tasks assigned to the units and forces involved,” Riabykh concluded.

Russian Shaheds in Polish airspace: What we know

The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces placed air defense and aviation units on high alert following Russia’s night attack on Ukraine on September 10, during which Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Reports indicate that more than 20 UAVs were involved.

In a village in Poland’s Lublin Province, debris from one drone fell on a house, though no injuries were reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the violation of Poland’s airspace by Russian drones, calling it a dangerous precedent for all of Europe.

On Wednesday, September 10, NATO activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty after Russian drones violated Polish territory.