Russian advance threatens Zaporizhzhia region as Ukrainian troops withdraw from Huliaipole

Military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko discussed the issue on Telegram. 

Russian forces now control the entire left bank of the Haichul River within Huliaipole and have established positions along the P-85 highway on the right bank. Russian reconnaissance groups have infiltrated the northern parts of the city, reaching as far as Shevchenko Street, while Ukrainian forces maintain control only on the city's outskirts.

The rapid fall of Huliaipole stands in stark contrast to the months-long defense of Bakhmut, with the city collapsing in just two weeks despite its potential strategic importance as a defensive bastion for the Zaporizhzhia region. Kovalenko attributes the loss to systemic failures in risk assessment dating back a year, when Russian forces first began advancing from the Donetsk region toward Velyka Novosilka, as well as inadequate defensive preparations despite clear warnings as early as August 2024.

A recent counterattack by Ukraine's 425th Separate Assault Battalion Skala failed to stabilize the situation, with military observers noting that fighting for an unprepared city against reinforced Russian units from two armies would be suicidal. Unlike the successful defense of Kupiansk, where Ukrainian forces could methodically clear occupied areas after cutting off Russian supply lines, Huliaipole's terrain and the presence of Russian forces in the Marfopil area make such tactics impossible without a major counter-offensive involving at least one, preferably two, army corps.

Kovalenko criticizes what he describes as months of misinformation from military commanders and media outlets about the situation on this front, warning that the loss of Huliaipole could evolve into a genuine threat to the city of Zaporizhzhia itself. While Russian leader Vladimir Putin's Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov has reported full control of the city, Ukrainian forces still maintain positions on the periphery, though a complete withdrawal to "more advantageous positions" appears imminent.

• As of December 28, the invading Russian army has advanced in Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region and in Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.