"Russia can undermine NATO's pillars" — military observer Pehnio

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV. 

"Returning to the threat facing NATO, the European Union, and European countries, I always emphasize that only Russians and Ukrainians truly understand modern technological warfare—what drones are, what war looks like today. A tank, for example, does not pose the same level of capability or danger as a drone on the front line. Our soldiers on the ground report that warfare has now shifted to hiding in trenches—it is safer to stay inside than to move in or out. The world is unprepared for this; it does not yet know how to counter it, what to deploy in response, or what units and troops to train. Therefore, if the Russians were to send a few well-trained unmanned units—honed in the Ukrainian war—to attack the Suwałki Isthmus or the Baltic States, it would pose a significant challenge for our European friends and partners," he said.

Vasyl Pehnio also mentioned the ongoing hybrid war that Russia continues to wage. He noted that its mechanisms and doctrine have been meticulously refined by Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov. The doctrine assumes that physical actions are less important than non-kinetic, or non-physical, operations.

"What we are talking about is this: according to Russian military doctrine, every physical action—such as shelling or an attack—must be accompanied by four non-kinetic, non-physical actions, primarily information warfare. These can include cyberattacks, the spread of disinformation or post-truth narratives that manipulate reality, and diplomatic maneuvers in organizations like the UN. Hybrid warfare has not gone away.

In the past six months alone, we have seen mysterious cuts and damage to internet cables and energy supply lines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Isn't this the beginning of a war? I believe this is a clear signal of the threat facing European countries. The goal is not to march all the way to the English Channel. The real objective is to break the resilience of NATO and its partners, to weaken its foundations—and, in my view, Russia has the capability to do just that," the military observer said.

• On March 30, the defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania voiced concerns that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could heighten the security threat to their countries. They believe that Russia would use the pause to rearm and reposition its forces along NATO’s northeastern flank.