No full-scale war between Russia and the West for now – analyst Taran

Political analyst Serhiy Taran said on Espreso.

“I think Putin continues to scare Europe as he always has, because intimidation is Russia’s diplomacy. It has nothing else to impress the world with — not its economy, science, human rights, or technology. All it has is oil, gas, and its army — used as tools of blackmail,” Taran explained.

He added that Moscow now uses drone provocations in Europe.

“These provocations will likely continue. The goal is to scare European countries into holding back support for Ukraine. But I don’t think Putin will dare start a full war with Europe. He lacks manpower. At most, he might risk drone strikes, but even that risks a serious response. In fact, Europe is already responding — building a ‘drone wall,’ expanding cooperation with Ukraine. Whether Putin dares full-scale war depends on Europe’s readiness,” he said.

According to Taran, NATO has responded politically in the right way, with all member states participating in countering provocations — even Hungary. “The real problem exposed is that NATO’s air defense is about 10 years behind in drone warfare. Now it is seeking technological solutions,” he noted.

“If in the coming months Europe proves it is ready both politically and technologically, there won’t be a large-scale war. Putin never fights strong countries — only those he considers weak. For now, there won’t be a full-scale war,” Taran stressed.

He also pointed out that Putin’s obsession with prolonging his own life proves he is unlikely to risk nuclear war: “He is investing money in longevity projects and even discussed living to 150 years with Xi Jinping. He is preparing to rule long and scare the world with nuclear bluff, but not actually use it.”

Taran added that Ukraine’s role is crucial: “Europe is beginning to involve Ukraine not just as a recipient of help but as a provider of it. Poland’s defense minister came to Kyiv after drone incidents to seek help, because Ukrainians have already learned how to handle it.”

“This creates the chance for a new security architecture with Ukraine as a full participant. Europe itself will be interested in that. That’s why I don’t think we are on the verge of World War III. If Europe and Ukraine respond decisively, Putin’s main weapon — bluff and intimidation — will fail,” Taran concluded.

• On the night of September 26, unknown drones with flashing lights were seen near the Karlskrona naval base in Sweden.