NATO privately warns Russia aircraft face shootdown over violations

Bloomberg reported the information.

In a closed-door meeting in Moscow, British, French, and German envoys confronted Russian officials about last week's incursion by three MiG-31 fighter jets over Estonia, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The European delegation concluded the violation was a deliberate provocation ordered by Russian military commanders.

Russian officials denied their aircraft crossed into Estonian territory and dismissed claims they are testing NATO's resolve. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov maintained that Russian military flights follow international regulations, while Moscow attributed a separate drone incident over Poland to operational error.

The confrontation comes as NATO's eastern flank faces an unprecedented wave of airspace violations this month, including Russian drones reported in Romania, Poland, and potentially Denmark. The incidents have tested alliance unity at a critical moment as Vladimir Putin intensifies attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and U.S. support for Kyiv faces uncertainty.

During the Moscow talks, a Russian diplomat reportedly linked the incursions to Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, arguing that such operations require NATO backing and therefore Russia considers itself already in confrontation with European nations. Russian representatives took detailed notes throughout the meeting, leading Europeans to believe they were instructed to provide a comprehensive report to higher command.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed the meeting occurred and said he supports "all measures necessary" while coordinating with Paris, London, and Warsaw. However, French President Emmanuel Macron declined to specify NATO's response to future violations during a Wednesday interview.

The airspace breaches have triggered Article 4 consultations twice this month alone – only the eighth and ninth times the NATO provision has been invoked since 1949. Danish authorities are considering similar action as they investigate potential Russian involvement in drone attacks that disrupted air traffic.

"Russia is testing us, testing our preparedness, testing our commitment to retaliate," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said Monday. "I think it's very important to show the solidarity — and even more important, fast reaction."

The incidents reflect what security officials view as Moscow's shift toward hybrid warfare tactics designed to create ambiguity about origins and intentions. Yet the strategy poses dilemmas for European leaders wary of escalation while struggling to maintain alliance unity.

Polish leader Donald Tusk has made robust calls for shooting down Russian aircraft, while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned NATO risks falling into Putin's "escalation trap" by firing on Russian planes.

Russian Ambassador Alexey Meshkov issued a stark warning Thursday: "If NATO shoots down a Russian plane under the pretext of an alleged violation of its airspace, this will be war."

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof expressed support for downing violating aircraft, telling reporters: "The Russians should be aware it could happen if they enter NATO airspace."