Middle East war creates new openings for Russian aggression in post-Soviet Europe — journalist Portnikov

Journalist Vitaly Portnikov shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"As for the potential spread of the conflict to the Middle East, we’ll be able to assess the situation more clearly a few days after Israel strikes Iran. To understand the consequences, we need to consider Iran’s capacity to respond. If Iran currently lacks the ability to retaliate—if its airspace remains largely undefended, and the top leadership of its armed forces and nuclear program has been eliminated—then it would be more logical for Tehran to avoid further escalation. Instead, it might seek ways to de-escalate in order to resume its nuclear program. However, we still don't know the exact nature of the strike on that program," the journalist noted.

According to him, Israel has reportedly asked Iran not to interfere with the destruction of its nuclear facilities, warning that failure to comply would result in the targeting of Iran's oil refining infrastructure. Nevertheless, Portnikov emphasized that the reasoning of regimes like Iran’s is not always rational, and they may continue to engage in conflict with Israel. Iran’s allies, such as Russia, will only encourage it to do so.

"Russia is now highly interested in Israel actually destroying Iran's oil refining facilities, as this would drive oil prices sharply higher. Such a development would enable Russia to sustain its war in Ukraine and prepare for future conflicts for years to come. So when we talk about the epicenter shifting to the Middle East, we must remember that war in that region creates enormous opportunities for Russia to wage war across the post-Soviet space in Europe. At this very moment, the fate of many European countries—not just Ukraine—is being determined. If Russia receives a windfall from soaring oil prices, it will further embolden the Kremlin to continue its aggression," Portnikov concluded.

• In the early hours of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale operation against Iran, carrying out preemptive strikes on its nuclear and military facilities.